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Bo Nichols
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Fed Hikes Unanimously | Diesel Pass-Through Coming | Chips Rose on a Down Day

Sep 16, 2026

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5 min read

Fed Hikes Unanimously | Diesel Pass-Through Coming | Chips Rose on a Down Day

The Fed hiked 12-0. The dot plot showed one more hike this year. Diesel pass-through hits goods prices in October-November. J.B. Hunt cut guidance. Chips rose on a down tape.

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Bo Nichols
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Shorts at Extreme Into Fed Day | CBO Prices the War | Businesses Can't Agree

Sep 16, 2026

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5 min read

Shorts at Extreme Into Fed Day | CBO Prices the War | Businesses Can't Agree

Bond shorts are at a tactical extreme heading into the Fed vote. Americans paid $107B extra for fuel on a 3% savings rate. Businesses are split on whether any of it is temporary. Freight to Asia hit a record.

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Bo Nichols
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Mortgages Cross 7% | AI Regulation Rejected Thrice | Salesforce Builds Its Own Model

Sep 15, 2026

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5 min read

Mortgages Cross 7% | AI Regulation Rejected Thrice | Salesforce Builds Its Own Model

Three officials rejected AI regulation on the same day. Salesforce built a reasoning model to stop routing prompts to the labs. China's factories are growing but consumers are not.

Dio Pouerie
Bo Nichols
Dio Pouerie, +1
Buffers Gone | Hedge Funds Own 7% of Treasuries | Hike May Rally Stocks

Sep 15, 2026

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5 min read

Buffers Gone | Hedge Funds Own 7% of Treasuries | Hike May Rally Stocks

Chevron says the buffers are gone; the administration says temporary. Hedge funds hold a record share of Treasuries. Wall Street wants a hike because it expects stocks to rally. Amazon's Gulf data centers are still dark six months on.

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Bo Nichols
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10-Year Prints 5% | Chips Fall on an Essay | Enterprise Data War | Trump vs AI Safety

Sep 14, 2026

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5 min read

10-Year Prints 5% | Chips Fall on an Essay | Enterprise Data War | Trump vs AI Safety

Saudi satellite images confirmed a burned pump station. Chip stocks fell on two essays with no order book changes. Enterprise buyers are restricting AI models over data terms. Trump called the safety push a conspiracy.

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Bo Nichols
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Warsh in a Vise | Commodities at a Decade High | AI Leaders Call Slowdown

Sep 14, 2026

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6 min read

Warsh in a Vise | Commodities at a Decade High | AI Leaders Call Slowdown

Warsh faces three internal dissenters and a White House that reversed itself in 48 hours. Wheat, soybeans, and corn are all at multi-year highs. The AI CEOs called for a slowdown. Nvidia may anchor Anthropic's IPO.

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Bo Nichols
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Financial Market News | Sunday Outlook

Sep 13, 2026

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6 min read

Financial Market News | Sunday Outlook

The Hike Is Priced. The Forecast Is Not.

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Bo Nichols
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Financial Market News | Saturday Review

Sep 12, 2026

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5 min read

Financial Market News | Saturday Review

The Week the Fed's Number Was Set Somewhere Else

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Bo Nichols
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Chevron's Buffers Gone | Four Dragons All Listed | Eight Banks to Hike

Sep 11, 2026

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6 min read

Chevron's Buffers Gone | Four Dragons All Listed | Eight Banks to Hike

Core CPI locked in the September hike. Consumer sentiment hit its second-lowest reading ever. Chevron said the oil market's buffers have played out. All four of China's AI chipmakers are now public. Eight central banks are expected to hike before year-end.

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Bo Nichols
Dio Pouerie, +1
Core CPI Hot, Hike Near Certain | Treasury Underfilled | Oracle's Capex Surge

Sep 11, 2026

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5 min read

Core CPI Hot, Hike Near Certain | Treasury Underfilled | Oracle's Capex Surge

Core CPI came in hotter than expected, pushing rate hike odds near 90%. Treasury's buyback underfilled and yields held near multi-year highs. Diesel broke $6. Oracle burned cash at record pace. The Pentagon is in talks to lend $5B to an AI startup.

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Bo Nichols
Dio Pouerie, +1
Soft PPI | Housing Stalls | SB Energy's Risky IPO | Memory Reprices Two Continents

Sep 10, 2026

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6 min read

Soft PPI | Housing Stalls | SB Energy's Risky IPO | Memory Reprices Two Continents

Core PPI cooperated but yields hit multi-year highs anyway as oil crossed $100. Housing sales fell to a one-year low. SB Energy IPO asks investors to fund $174B of capex on a backlog mostly due after 2034.

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Bo Nichols
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Bessent's Buyback Fails | Mortgage Hits 6.97% | War Could Run to 2029 | OpenAI's Rogue Scope Widens

Sep 10, 2026

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6 min read

Bessent's Buyback Fails | Mortgage Hits 6.97% | War Could Run to 2029 | OpenAI's Rogue Scope Widens

Treasury bought $6B and yields rose anyway. Trump's advisers are privately discussing 2029. OpenAI's rogue agent disclosure widened to 10+ sites.

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Bo Nichols
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Tanker War | Europe's Gas Gamble Fails | ECB Likely Hikes

Sep 9, 2026

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6 min read

Tanker War | Europe's Gas Gamble Fails | ECB Likely Hikes

Brent crossed $100 after ten Iranian tankers were hit in a week. European gas broke a 3-year high with storage 13 points light. Treasury announced a $6B buyback and yields rose anyway. Amazon raised sterling bonds. The ECB set to hike into an energy shock.

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Bo Nichols
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States Kill Tax Breaks | Refining Is Broken | Six Firms Named for Distillation

Sep 9, 2026

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5 min read

States Kill Tax Breaks | Refining Is Broken | Six Firms Named for Distillation

Oil hit $100 as states reverse data center tax breaks and Project Braid assumes half its sites miss their dates. Global refining is running short. Bessent said "I am the house now." Three agencies named six Chinese firms for distillation.

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Bo Nichols
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Qualcomm Pays Amazon | GE Buys Its Supply Chain | Intel Raises Prices | Robinhood Buys Access

Sep 8, 2026

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5 min read

Qualcomm Pays Amazon | GE Buys Its Supply Chain | Intel Raises Prices | Robinhood Buys Access

Qualcomm gave Amazon $4B in warrants to secure a chip deal. GE paid $12B to own a castings plant it cannot get enough of. Intel raised prices into weak demand. Robinhood bought equity in two venues. Consumers expect the worst job market since 2020.

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Bo Nichols
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Oil at Six-Week High | Memory Chips Rally | Data Center Backlash | Anthropic Drops Deal

Sep 8, 2026

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6 min read

Oil at Six-Week High | Memory Chips Rally | Data Center Backlash | Anthropic Drops Deal

Iranian oil money runs out by October. Memory stocks rallied on Astra. Data center moratoriums are spreading. Anthropic walked from a $6B deal before its IPO.

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Bo Nichols
Dio Pouerie, +1
Wall Street's Unruly Season Starts Now

Sep 7, 2026

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4 min read

Wall Street's Unruly Season Starts Now

Nearly 100 years of data say this month is different. This year it comes with real tests.

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Bo Nichols
Dio Pouerie, +1
Financial Market News | Sunday Outlook

Sep 6, 2026

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6 min read

Financial Market News | Sunday Outlook

The Print That Decides It

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Bo Nichols
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Financial Market News | Saturday Review

Sep 5, 2026

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5 min read

Financial Market News | Saturday Review

The Week the AI Trade Met the Bond Market

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Bo Nichols
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FICO Loses | Norway Treasuries | Diesel Breaks Record | Lulu and Tesla Reprice

Sep 4, 2026

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5 min read

FICO Loses | Norway Treasuries | Diesel Breaks Record | Lulu and Tesla Reprice

162K jobs removed the cover for holding rates. FICO lost its monopoly on mortgage credit. Norway's oil fund is cutting Treasuries. Diesel broke the 2022 record. Lululemon and Tesla repriced as rate odds shifted.

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Bo Nichols
Dio Pouerie, +1
NFP Crushes Estimates | Record IG Supply | VW Cuts | Manager Purge | Oura Files

Sep 4, 2026

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5 min read

NFP Crushes Estimates | Record IG Supply | VW Cuts | Manager Purge | Oura Files

Payrolls added 162,000 jobs in August, triple what was expected. Record corporate bond supply lands into a crowded market. Volkswagen doubled its job cuts. Managers are disappearing. Oura filed into the most crowded IPO window of the year.

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Bo Nichols
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Waller Breaks With Warsh | Private Credit Gates | Record Import Line

Sep 3, 2026

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5 min read

Waller Breaks With Warsh | Private Credit Gates | Record Import Line

Waller said give disinflation a chance and cut September hike odds by 15 points. ISM services then showed the opposite. Private credit gated exits while lending at 9% to the AI trade. Nvidia bought Hugging Face. Capital goods imports hit a record.

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Bo Nichols
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Broadcom’s Financing | HPE vs Snowflake | Europe’s Gas Risk | Unhedged U.S. Assets

Sep 3, 2026

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5 min read

Broadcom’s Financing | HPE vs Snowflake | Europe’s Gas Risk | Unhedged U.S. Assets

Broadcom is bridging customer cash gaps. Europe enters winter with gas storage at a 15-year low. Foreign investors hold record U.S. assets with little currency protection. The government filed for OpenAI.

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Bo Nichols
Dio Pouerie, +1
Growth Drives Yields Not Deficits | ADP Misses Hard | Housing vs Data Centers | Ryanair Cuts | PG&E Slashes Spending

Sep 2, 2026

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6 min read

Growth Drives Yields Not Deficits | ADP Misses Hard | Housing vs Data Centers | Ryanair Cuts | PG&E Slashes Spending

The bond market is pricing growth gaps, not just deficits. ADP came in weak with manufacturing negative. Data centers took $170B from housing. Ryanair cut winter capacity on fuel. PG&E slashed $2B after California failed to act.

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Bo Nichols
Dio Pouerie, +1
Token Prices Collapse | Dell's $192B Guide | Labs Ship Cheaper Models

Sep 2, 2026

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5 min read

Token Prices Collapse | Dell's $192B Guide | Labs Ship Cheaper Models

AI token prices hit a record low while Dell guides to $192B partly on cost pass-through. Two labs shipped cheaper models the same day. OpenAI flagged its own upcoming model as a cyber risk. Barr and Bessent publicly disagreed on September.

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Bo Nichols
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