Microsoft Loses Grip | AWS Moves Fast | SpaceX Files Its Case

The close was mixed. Like traders were holding risk in place.

The S&P slipped 0.1% after hovering all day. The Nasdaq gained 0.5% ahead of the Big Tech earnings sprint.

WTI did most of the talking. It jumped over 7% and stayed elevated. That move pushed yields higher into the afternoon. Rate pressure came back into focus.

Tech continues to balance the OpenAI shock against the rest of the sector. Seagate (STX) and NXP (NXPI) posted strong results and held gains. But both sit outside the OpenAI infrastructure stack. 

Investor Signal

The market is pausing under pressure, not breaking. Oil is tightening conditions. Tech now has to justify heavy spending or the pause turns into a pullback fast.

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For three years, Microsoft (MSFT) had the closest relationship in tech. It invested billions in OpenAI and got exclusive access to its models in return. That exclusivity ended Monday. By Tuesday, OpenAI's models were live on Amazon (AMZN) Web Services.

AWS now offers OpenAI's latest models, its Codex coding tool, and a new service built specifically around OpenAI's reasoning technology. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy publicly called Monday's restructuring announcement "very interesting," then launched the new service the next day.

OpenAI's revenue chief said the Amazon move and the Microsoft restructuring are unrelated. Most analysts do not buy that. The timeline tells the story more clearly than any statement. Exclusivity ends Monday, Amazon launches new OpenAI services Tuesday, and OpenAI's revenue chief is speaking from an Amazon event when she says the two are unrelated.

The Shift

Microsoft still has access to OpenAI's models through 2032, but the center of the relationship has clearly moved. Microsoft is now building its own hedge through Anthropic while OpenAI expands with Amazon.

Two companies that defined the AI trade together are now quietly building around each other.

The Number

Watch Microsoft's Azure growth figure on today's earnings call. If enterprise AI spending is shifting toward Amazon, it will start showing up there first.

The Fed held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. That was the only part that went according to plan.

The vote was 8 to 4, the most divided since October 1992. Three regional presidents voted against retaining the language signaling cuts are still the next likely move. A fourth dissented in the opposite direction, wanting a cut immediately. The forward guidance phrase survived, but three officials put their names on record against it.

The statement also upgraded its inflation language for the first time in months: "Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices." The word "somewhat" is gone.

Powell announced he will remain on the Fed board as governor after May 15, at least until the legal challenges against the institution are resolved. "I'm worried that these attacks are battering the institution," he said. 

The Senate Banking Committee voted Warsh through 13 to 11 on a party-line vote this morning.

The Handoff

Warsh inherits an 8-4 committee, a more hawkish inflation statement, and a former chair staying in the building. His rate cut agenda now has to get past three sitting presidents who voted today to remove the language that made cuts plausible.

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Europe uses about 1.6 million barrels of jet fuel per day. It produces 1.1 million of those domestically. The rest traditionally came from the Middle East, and that supply has mostly disappeared since the Strait of Hormuz closed in late February.

The U.S. has been exporting jet fuel at record levels to help fill the gap, but Europe is competing against Singapore, Australia, and other Asian buyers for every available shipment. One analyst put it plainly: "Europe has to fight for every cargo of jet fuel to come."

Lufthansa (LHA.DE) canceled 20,000 flights specifically to conserve fuel. That is not a financial decision. It is a supply management decision, which is a different and more serious problem.

Financial hedges protect against price spikes. They do not help when the physical supply simply is not there. Lufthansa's flight cuts are the clearest sign yet that Europe is moving from expensive fuel to scarce fuel.

The Line

Watch for additional capacity cuts from any major European carrier beyond Lufthansa. That move marks the shift from a cost problem into a supply problem, and the two require very different responses.

GE HealthCare (GEHC) cut its full-year profit forecast Wednesday morning and missed first-quarter earnings estimates. The CEO named the specific reasons: memory chips, oil, and freight costs all rose sharply in the first quarter.

Those three cost drivers have now shown up in airlines, consumer goods, and medical equipment within the same earnings season. The war's cost impact has moved well beyond energy companies.

Medical imaging machines like MRI and CT scanners rely on the same high-bandwidth memory chips that AI data centers are buying at record pace. As chip supply tightens globally, the cost flows into hospital equipment just as it flows into data centers.

Revenue still rose 7.4 percent to $5.13 billion, beating estimates. But shares fell more than 9 percent because investors are focused on margins, not revenue. The profit outlook is what changed, and the company said it cannot fully offset the cost increases through price hikes alone.

The Spread

Watch Siemens Healthineers and Philips when they report. If they cite the same cost inputs, medical equipment has joined the growing list of industries where war-era supply costs are permanently embedded in the margin structure.

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SpaceX is preparing for what could be the largest IPO in history at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Reuters reviewed more than 100 pages of the confidential filing this week, and one number stands out immediately.

SpaceX claims a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion. For context, that is larger than the entire U.S. economy. More than 90 percent of that figure comes from AI, not rockets.

The filing frames SpaceX less as a space company and more as a future AI infrastructure business spanning orbital data centers and eventually Mars.

What the Filing Also Says

That last point matters for anyone buying in. Some IPO cash will go to debt first. Not into Starship or data centers yet.

The filing comes at a tense time. Musk is testifying in a $150 billion case. The trial schedule and the roadshow schedule overlap through mid-May. Every day of testimony runs alongside the investor meetings.

The Roadshow

Watch how institutional analysts characterize the $28.5 trillion TAM claim in their research notes. That is where the $1.75 trillion valuation either gets validated or quietly revised before the roadshow begins.

Wednesday was the day the map got redrawn.

OpenAI moved toward Amazon while Microsoft built its hedge through Anthropic. Powell stepped back and left the next move for Warsh. Europe started rationing jet fuel. Medical equipment joined the list of industries absorbing war costs.

The AI trade, the energy shock, and the Fed transition are no longer separate stories. They are the same story, resolving on the same timeline.