Every major pressure point moved at once. The data weakened, costs surged, and supply constraints tightened across the system.
MARKET PULSE
The Market Splits As Spending Fears Hit Big Tech
The close felt uneven across the board. Strength showed up, but not in tech.
The Dow jumped roughly 1.7% on industrial strength, while the S&P and Nasdaq each rose around 1.0%.
Caterpillar (CAT) led the upside with a strong beat. That gave cyclicals a rare moment of control. Tech told a different story.
WTI pulled back slightly but stayed elevated. Energy pressure didn’t disappear.
Investor Signal
Leadership is rotating away from crowded tech trades. Earnings are strong, but spending matters more. When costs rise too fast, stocks get hit.
PREMIER FEATURE
Musk Is About to Cause a 1.5 Million-Home Blackout
Everyone thinks the AI trade is about chips. They’re wrong. The bottleneck has moved.
Entire data centers are sitting idle because they can’t get enough power online. Goldman Sachs says demand is growing 15% per year, with major shortages ahead.
One company has $1.5 billion in backlog orders for the exact equipment these facilities need. Wall Street still prices it like a sleepy industrial stock.
The June SpaceX IPO will prove it.
TECH WATCH
Memory Chips Are the Most Profitable Products on Earth Right Now.
Three companies make memory chips powering AI, social media, and medical equipment. All three are sold out. And all three are now among the most profitable companies on the planet.
Samsung reported that 94 percent of its quarterly profit came from its semiconductor division alone. Memory prices doubled in a single quarter. Samsung is now projected to be the second most profitable company in the world in 2026, behind only Nvidia (NVDA).
SK Hynix moves from 18th to 6th most profitable globally. Micron (MU) moves from 49th to 9th. Together, the three companies are on track to earn $350 billion this year.
Why It Matters
Customers are receiving only 30 to 50 percent of chips ordered
New contracts now require 30 percent payment upfront
Supply crunch expected to get worse in 2027
Profit margins on memory chips have roughly doubled
Meta raised its spending forecast by $10 billion this quarter specifically because of memory prices. GE HealthCare (GEHC) cut its profit forecast for the same reason. These are not separate stories. They are the same shortage showing up in different industries.
The Ceiling
Watch TSMC (TSM) for any comment on memory constraints affecting its own chip production. That connection would confirm the bottleneck has become fully circular across the entire supply chain.
PHARMA WATCH
Eli Lilly Beat by $2 Billion. Weight-Loss Drugs Are Recession-Proof.
Eli Lilly (LLY) reported earnings Thursday that were not close. Revenue of $19.8 billion beat estimates by more than $2 billion. Adjusted earnings beat by nearly $2 per share. The company then raised its full-year guidance by $2 billion more.
Mounjaro revenue rose 125 percent. Zepbound rose 80 percent. Both are weight-loss and diabetes drugs, and both are growing faster than analysts expected. Shares jumped more than 7 percent before the open.
The reason this stands out is the broader context. GDP missed Thursday morning. Consumer spending slowed. Oil hit $125. Most companies are cutting or holding guidance cautiously. Lilly raised it cleanly.
Weight-loss drug prescriptions are driven by medical need and insurance coverage. Gas prices do not change whether a patient fills a prescription. That insulation from the war's cost shock is exactly why Lilly moved when almost no one else could.
The Lead
Lilly now holds 60 percent of the U.S. obesity and diabetes drug market versus Novo Nordisk's (NVO) 39 percent. The new oral Foundayo pill, not included in Thursday's results, has already attracted more than 20,000 patients in its first few weeks with over 1,000 new starts per day. Watch Novo's next update on its own oral pill. That comparison is the race that defines the next chapter for both companies.
PARTNER SPOTLIGHT
Pop Quiz: What's the 3rd Greatest Investment Since 2000?
Everyone knows NVIDIA is #1.
Some are shocked to learn Monster Energy is #2.
Even though it's averaged 29% returns every year since 2000... enough to turn $1,000 into $556,454.
It doesn't trade like a tech stock. And it was started as a private "trust fund" for the financial elite.
LEGAL WATCH
Musk Contradicted His Own Posts While Under Oath.
Elon Musk returned to the stand in Oakland on Wednesday for cross-examination. OpenAI's attorney William Savitt spent hours walking through Musk's own words. One exchange stood out above the rest.
Savitt showed the court a post from Musk's own platform where Musk claimed Tesla would be one of the companies to achieve artificial general intelligence. Then he asked Musk directly. Under oath, Musk said Tesla is not currently pursuing AGI.
The contradiction was immediate and on the record.
The cross-examination also revealed that Musk discussed converting OpenAI to a for-profit structure as far back as 2016. In 2017, he explored a version where he would hold majority control and equity. When that plan failed, he stopped donating.
Musk's entire case rests on the argument that OpenAI betrayed its nonprofit mission for profit. Wednesday's testimony showed Musk had explored the same for-profit structure he is now suing OpenAI for creating.
The Record
Watch Brockman's testimony Thursday. His 2017 diary entries were the most damaging pre-trial disclosures. His live answers carry the same risk for OpenAI's defense.
CLOSING LENS
Thursday put the whole week on one page.
Growth is slowing. Inflation is rising. Oil hit $125. Memory chips are selling out years in advance. And Musk contradicted himself under oath while his IPO roadshow approaches.
Every pressure point arrived at once. None of them resolved. The next chapter starts next week.
