TSMC Beat and Raised. Seoul's Chip Rout Deepened.

AI Demand Beat Forecasts Again. The Money Behind It Got More Expensive.

S&P 500 futures are down this morning, about 0.35% and Nasdaq 100 futures about 1.3%. Dow futures were up about 0.3%.

The S&P 500 fell 1.1% on Wednesday to 7,718.94 after a hot inflation report. Chipmakers and the companies that borrow to build data centers led the drop.

TSMC's results showed demand for its chips still running ahead of its own forecasts. The selling showed investors asking more to fund the buildout.

Investor Signal

The split runs through the futures. Dow contracts rose while Nasdaq contracts fell, suggesting the selling is concentrated rather than broad. Producer prices and retail sales arrive at 8:30 a.m. A hot reading would add rate pressure to a trade that already pays more to borrow.

TSMC Beat Its Own Forecast as the AI Selloff Deepened in Seoul

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) said Thursday that third-quarter revenue was $46.72 billion, above the top of its own forecast. It guided fourth-quarter sales to $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion. Chief Executive C.C. Wei said on the call that TSMC raised its 2026 revenue growth forecast to about 44% in dollar terms.

Wei said rising component prices and economic uncertainty are hurting consumer markets. He said TSMC is being "prudent" in planning for 2027. It still called AI demand "extremely robust."

The U.S.-listed shares were about 3% lower pre-market. South Korea's Kospi closed down 7.6% after tripping a circuit breaker, its seventh straight decline. SK Hynix fell about 11%.

CoreWeave (CRWV) fell 15.5% Wednesday as yields on its 2032 bonds neared 15%, CNBC reported. Oracle (ORCL) fell 8.8%.

Anthropic told prospective investors Wednesday that third-quarter revenue rose about 45% from the second quarter to $16.8 billion, Reuters, Bloomberg and the Financial Times reported. That was slower growth than in the second quarter. The company has not published the figures.

Investor Signal

The demand side of AI printed well this week. The strain sits in financing, where banks are exploring ways to shed risk on data-center loans, the Financial Times reported. Chip demand depends on that money reaching TSMC's customers. TSMC's capital plan for 2027, usually given in January, will show how much caution it carries into next year.

Ericsson Jumped on a Beat. Like TSMC, It Flagged Rising Component Prices.

Ericsson (ERIC) said third-quarter sales rose 6% to 59.48 billion Swedish kronor. A Bloomberg analyst consensus had expected about 55.4 billion. Its U.S.-listed shares were about 12% higher at about 7 a.m., while European tech stocks fell about 3%.

Part of the beat came from licensing income tied to earlier periods. Ericsson did not say how large that piece was. Back-dated payments tend to be lumpy.

Chief Executive Per Narvinger said higher component costs should weigh somewhat on gross margin next year. He called the market for radio equipment flat.

Investor Signal

Two firms at different points in the hardware chain named rising component costs Thursday. Ericsson has to pass that cost on in a market that isn't growing. TSMC says those costs are squeezing consumer markets, while it calls AI demand strong. Fourth-quarter margins at both will show whether pricing keeps up.

Inflation Ran Hot. The 10-Year Yield Ended Lower.

September consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier. Core prices rose 0.3% for a second month, a tenth above forecast.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to about 5.33% after the report. It closed at 5.19%, two basis points lower on the day, Treasury data show. The two-year yield rose three basis points to 4.82%.

Kalshi's contract on an October hike jumped from 18 cents to 55 cents Wednesday morning. By about 6 a.m. Thursday it traded at 23 to 24 cents. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said Wednesday she feels no urgency to act further.

Investor Signal

A higher two-year yield and a lower 10-year can point to tighter policy soon and slower growth later. The AI debt selloff tightens credit on its own, which may do some of the Fed's work. Producer prices and retail sales test that reading this morning. A hot producer print with firm spending would suggest the hike bet fell too far.

Two More Ships Sank Near Hormuz. Brent Fell Faster Than U.S. Crude.

Brent crude traded near $105 ahead of the US open Thursday morning, down about 1.2% from Wednesday's settlement. U.S. crude rose about 0.3% over $95. Brent's premium over U.S. crude narrowed from about $11 to about $9.

Singapore said the container ship GFS Pride sank after a projectile strike, and all 21 crew are safe. Iran's Revolutionary Guards say it hit a mine. International Maritime Organization data show a bulk carrier hit in September has also gone down.

Saudi Arabia pumped 8.30 million barrels a day in September, up from 5.97 million in August, the IEA said. Polymarket's contract on a U.S. announcement ending its blockade of Iranian shipping fell from 12.5 cents to as low as 7.5 cents overnight.

Investor Signal

No single cause explains the drop. Gulf barrels are recovering, and a U.S. official told Reuters that Washington may ease sanctions on some shadow-fleet tankers. Diesel is one channel carrying the shock into the wider economy, as household fuel oil prices rose 15.3% in September from August. The Beige Book said fuel surcharges were passing higher costs through supply chains, which keeps pressure on the Fed even as crude eases.

Investors Can Soon Bet on a Company's Numbers Instead of Its Stock

The SEC approved a Cboe (CBOE) plan on Tuesday to list options on companies' reported figures. Each pays $1 depending on whether a figure lands above or below a set level. The first list covers 23 companies and more than 100 metrics.

They include data-center revenue at Nvidia (NVDA) and iPhone revenue at Apple (AAPL). The number comes from the company's SEC filing. Trading can't start until Cboe's clearinghouse gets temporary registration. Robinhood (HOOD) plans to be the first broker to offer them to retail customers.

Investor Signal

The product splits a company's results from its share price. This week showed why that gap matters, when TSMC beat its own forecast and its shares still fell. The contracts sit under securities law, outside the regulator that oversees Kalshi. Early volume will show whether they stay a niche.

Demand held up this week. TSMC beat its own forecast, and Ericsson grew in a flat market. What changed was the price of money for the companies building AI.

Long-term yields fell, hike bets faded and crude eased while those borrowers sold off. This morning's producer prices will show whether that relief lasts.