Oil Stayed Down | Yields Rose | AMD Guided Higher

Chips Rallied Into AMD's Results. AMD Guided Higher After the Bell.

The Nasdaq rose about 0.8% on Tuesday, and the S&P 500 about 0.4%. The Dow fell about 0.4%. Chipmakers led, and AMD (AMD) rose about 3.7% before its results.

Treasury yields rose across the curve, even as crude ended little changed after Monday's 7% drop. Bitcoin edged up to near $77,800, and Coinbase (COIN) rose about 5.5% a day after a 52-week low.

After the close, AMD reported third-quarter revenue of $13.4 billion, above the top of its guidance range. It forecast about $17 billion for the fourth quarter, and its shares traded about 7% higher shortly after the release.

Election results arrive overnight. Contracts on Democratic control of the Senate slipped about 3 cents on Polymarket and Kalshi by early afternoon, to near 73 cents. The Treasury sets its borrowing plan Wednesday morning.

Investor Signal

Higher yields lower what investors will pay today for profits years away. That fits a session in which stocks that missed on sales measures were sold. AMD's forecast gives chip stocks a demand answer, and Wednesday's session will show whether it lifts Intel (INTC) after last week's selloff.

Job Openings Beat Forecasts. Yields and Hike Odds Rose With Oil Flat.

Employers listed 7.52 million job openings at the end of September, up 333,000 from August and well above forecasts. The Labor Department still called the level little changed.

About a third of the gain came from state and local government outside education. Hires rose only slightly, while quits rose to 3.4 million, a 2.1% rate.

Kalshi's December hike contract traded near 74 cents by early afternoon, up from 71 cents before the open. The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 6 basis points to near 4.95%.

Homebuilders gave back Monday's rally, and D.R. Horton (DHI) fell 5%.

Investor Signal

Monday's rally treated cheaper oil as the path to lower rates, and Tuesday broke that link. Yields were already rising before the report, so the data may have added to a move under way. Openings led by government jobs are a weaker wage signal than broad private demand. Friday's payrolls, forecast near 65,000, will show whether private hiring backs up the openings.

Shopify, Gartner and Sysco Met or Beat on Profit. All Three Fell.

Shopify (SHOP) grew revenue 32% to $3.74 billion, and adjusted earnings of 49 cents a share beat the 47-cent forecast. Merchant volume and subscription revenue fell short of forecasts, and the stock fell about 9%.

Gartner (IT) beat earnings estimates by 75 cents and raised its outlook, then fell about 13%. Excluding a sold business, revenue grew 2.4%, and contract value rose 2.5%.

Sysco (SYY) matched profit forecasts but missed analysts' sales estimates by about $280 million. It now expects full-year sales growth at the low end of 6% to 7%, and the stock fell about 9%.

Investor Signal

Each fell after missing or slowing on a measure tied to future sales. Gartner's beat came mostly from below the revenue line, since revenue topped forecasts by only about 1%. The reactions suggest investors are grading on next year's sales more than this quarter's profit. Shopify's merchant volume and Gartner's contract value next quarter are the figures to watch.

Apollo Originated a Record Amount. Investors Expect Private Credit to Pay Less.

Apollo (APO) originated a record $114 billion of assets in the third quarter, and fee-related earnings rose 23% to $802 million. It also reported a $1.1 billion net loss, tied mainly to unrealized losses at its insurer, Athene.

Adjusted earnings of $2.07 a share missed forecasts near $2.20. The shares fell about 5%.

A Bloomberg Intelligence survey found 56% of investors now expect private credit to pay 1 point or less over syndicated loans, up from 20% in April. Among managers, 78% still expect at least 2 points.

Investor Signal

Private lenders are still finding borrowers, but investors expect less extra pay for locking up money. Most direct loans carry floating rates, so a December hike would raise borrowers' interest bills even as investors accept a thinner premium. Quarterly filings from business development companies, due by mid-November, will show how many loans have stopped paying.

Eaton's Sales Rose 28%. Its Electrical Backlog Topped $20 Billion.

Eaton (ETN) reported record third-quarter sales of $8.9 billion, up 28%, with 19% organic growth. Adjusted earnings of $3.68 a share topped the $3.54 analysts expected, and the stock rose about 7%.

Backlog in its electrical businesses rose 46% to more than $20 billion. In the Electrical Global segment, which now includes Boyd Thermal, a cooling business bought this year, backlog rose 121%. Eaton raised its full-year adjusted earnings forecast to $13.70 to $13.80 a share.

Investor Signal

Eaton's order book shows no sign yet that higher borrowing costs are cooling demand for power gear. Electrical orders ran about 1.2 times shipments over the past year, which may make delivery capacity, more than demand, the limit. About 8 points of sales growth came from acquisitions, mainly Boyd Thermal. Fourth-quarter organic growth, guided to 13% to 15%, will show how fast the backlog converts.

CVR Is Buying Two Refineries at About 3.6 Times Trailing EBITDA. Its Shares Fell 13%.

CVR Energy (CVI) agreed to buy two refineries from Marathon Petroleum (MPC) for about $4.2 billion. The plants earned $1.158 billion of EBITDA in the 12 months to Sept. 30, so the price is about 3.6 times that figure.

CVR said that figure reflects "current favorable market conditions." The same business earned $506 million of EBITDA in all of 2025.

CVR will pay partly with $2.5 billion of committed secured debt and $800 million of new equity from commodity trader Trafigura. It also launched a $750 million share sale, including $250 million sold by its controlling holder, a unit of Icahn Enterprises (IEP).

CVR closed down about 13% on a day it also reported quarterly results. Valero (VLO) and PBF Energy (PBF) rose.

Investor Signal

CVR is paying for refining margins, which Reuters tied to the Iran war's disruption of Gulf shipping. At 2025 earnings, the price would be more than eight times EBITDA, so the deal looks cheap only if those margins last. Progress in Iran talks would put that bet at risk. The offering's final price and size will show how much dilution public holders absorb.

Oil stopped setting the direction for rates on Tuesday. Yields rose with crude flat, and stocks that slipped on growth measures paid for it.

AI demand held up in Eaton's orders and AMD's forecast. The election, Wednesday's borrowing plan and Friday's payrolls will show whether higher rates stick.