Financial Market News | Sunday Outlook

Last week ended with the Fed and the bond market apart. Two Fed officials voted for a hike Wednesday, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said Friday more tightening "will be necessary, and soon."

Bond traders bought Treasuries anyway. The 10-year yield ended at 4.94%, and the two-year fell 13 basis points on the week to 4.56%. Kalshi's December hike contract slipped to 73 cents.

Stocks paid for cash in hand. Technology fell about 4.9% Friday after Intel's (INTC) warning, while energy and health care rose.

This week puts the disagreement on the calendar. The Treasury says how much it will borrow. Voters choose a Congress. The jobs report closes the week.

The Fed's quiet period is over, and several officials speak. Cleveland's Beth Hammack, one of Wednesday's dissenters, is scheduled Thursday.

The six items below split into four dated events and two open questions.

MONDAY, NOV. 2, 3 P.M., AND WEDNESDAY, NOV. 4, 8:30 A.M. | THE TREASURY'S BORROWING PLAN

The Treasury releases its borrowing estimates Monday at 3 p.m. Eastern. Its quarterly refunding announcement follows Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., with auction sizes for the coming quarter.

Long bonds have been under watch. The Treasury bought back up to $6 billion of bonds due from 2046 to 2056 last Tuesday. The 30-year yield ended the week at 5.31%, well above the 10-year. Demand for shorter notes held up. Last Tuesday's $70 billion five-year sale cleared at 4.845%, with bids of 2.33 times the amount offered.

Corporate supply lands the same day. Microsoft's (MSFT) bond sale of at least $25 billion settles Nov. 4, with maturities of up to 40 years.

Investor Signal

Will the long end get more supply or less? Steady coupon sizes would let the rally rest on growth and the Fed. Any hint of larger long-bond sales would push the 30-year back toward last week's highs. The 30-year, mortgage rates and long-dated corporate bonds are most exposed.

THE CHIPS AFTER INTEL

Apple (AAPL) and Palantir (PLTR) report Monday after the close. AMD (AMD) reports Tuesday after the close, with its call at 5 p.m. Arm (ARM) and Qualcomm (QCOM) follow Wednesday.

Intel (INTC) closed down about 29% Friday after warning of a PC slowdown tied to memory prices. AMD and Qualcomm each fell about 11% the same day.

Strong results have not been enough lately. Seagate and Teradyne beat and guided higher, and both still fell.

Investor Signal

Does Intel's PC warning spread? AMD's PC outlook and Apple's comments on memory costs are the first checks. A steady PC forecast would contain the damage to Intel. A second warning would extend Friday's selloff across PC makers and memory stocks.

THE MIDTERMS

Americans vote for Congress Tuesday. Polls start closing at 6 p.m. Eastern, and results run into the night.

Both big prediction markets put Democratic Senate odds above 70% Friday. Polymarket's House contract traded around 93 cents. Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) both offer event contracts, and trading volume on election night will show up in their results.

Brazil showed what those prices mean. Traders had Flávio Bolsonaro at 82 cents on the afternoon of Sunday's runoff, and he lost.

Investor Signal

Will the result match the prices? A Republican Senate hold would be the upset, and the 70-cent favorite would lose. Election night also opens the window traders tie to Iran, since President Trump pledged no attack before the vote. Prediction-market venues, energy and defense stocks are most exposed.

THE JOBS REPORT

October payrolls and unemployment arrive at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. September payrolls rose just 29,000, and unemployment held at 4.2%. July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000.

The week builds toward it. The ISM manufacturing survey comes Monday at 10 a.m. Job openings follow Tuesday at 10 a.m. ADP's private payrolls come Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Households still expect 5.8% inflation over the next year, the Conference Board said. Wage pressure is steady. Employer costs rose 0.8% last quarter, matching forecasts. The economy grew at a 3.4% rate in the third quarter, but spending after inflation stalled in September.

Investor Signal

Is the bond market right about growth? A second weak month, with unemployment above 4.2%, would push the December hike bet further below 73 cents. A strong gain would hand the argument back to the Fed and lift the two-year. Two-year notes, the dollar and small caps are most exposed.

THE WINDOW AFTER THE VOTE

U.S. officials told regional allies to prepare for possible military action after the Nov. 3 elections, the Associated Press reported. Polymarket's contract on the ceasefire holding through Nov. 8 swung from 80.5 cents to 45 cents late Thursday, then recovered to 73.5 cents Friday.

Seven OPEC+ members meet Sunday. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) hit record highs Friday on refining profits that rest on the same disruption. Brent ended the week near $112. On Thursday, December 2027 futures sat about $28 below the front month.

Investor Signal

Does the risk arrive after the election, or fade again? A U.S. strike would lift the front of the oil curve and revive inflation fears before the jobs data. Talks that hold past Nov. 8 would let that premium shrink. Brent's front month, refiners and airlines are most exposed.

BINANCE REOPENS, OR DOESN'T

Binance says it has set aside more than $6.34 billion to repay users after its breach. It aims to reopen withdrawals by Sunday and publish proof of reserves by Monday. CertiK said it needs more information to verify the $5 billion Binance says it holds.

Crypto stocks fell about twice as far as the largest bitcoin fund Friday. Coinbase (COIN) touched a 52-week low, and Circle (CRCL) reports Wednesday. Bitcoin funds still took in money for a fourth straight day Thursday, so the selling has hit the companies more than the coin.

Investor Signal

Can Binance meet its own deadlines? Reopened withdrawals and a verified reserve report would ease the exchange risk behind Friday's selling. A delay would widen it. Crypto exchanges, stablecoin issuers and bitcoin miners are most exposed.

Last week split the market by who pays from cash in hand. This week tests the economy behind that cash.

The Treasury speaks first, then voters, then the labor market. If jobs stay weak, bonds keep the argument. If they rebound, the Fed gets its December case back.