Caterpillar named data centers as the driver of record revenue. Bessent said a Hormuz deal could come tomorrow. Palantir surged 26%. SpaceX reported its first earnings. And Bezos sold $4B into the $3T milestone.
Stocks Ripped. Oil Dropped Hard. Bessent Put a Date on a Hormuz Deal.
The Dow closed up sharply. The Nasdaq gained over 2.5%. Palantir (PLTR) surged 26% for its biggest single-day gain since early 2024. WTI dropped hard after Treasury Secretary Bessent told CNBC a Hormuz reopening deal could arrive tomorrow. The 10-year yield continued to move away from Friday’s high.
Jeff Bezos filed to sell roughly $4 billion in Amazon (AMZN) shares Monday, the exact day Amazon crossed $3 trillion. SpaceX (SPCX) reported its first public earnings after the bell into the highest short interest of any mega-cap name in recent memory.
The Signal
Bessent putting a specific timeline on Hormuz is the most consequential single statement of the week. If the deal closes, WTI falls further, the September hike case weakens, and the bond market exhales. If it falls apart again, the market has already moved and gives it all back. Tomorrow is genuinely binary.
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Caterpillar Had Its Biggest Revenue Quarter Ever. Data Centers Were the Reason.
Caterpillar crossed $20 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time ever. It beat profit estimates by the widest margin in five years. Then it raised full-year guidance to mid-to-high teens growth from low double-digit.
The breakdown is what makes this significant. Power and energy revenues grew 17%, explicitly driven by large engines and turbines for data centers. Construction revenues jumped 35%, with the company directly naming AI infrastructure spending as the driver. These are not tech companies. Caterpillar makes heavy equipment. And yet the entire earnings beat flows from the data center build-out.
This is industrial-layer confirmation. Amazon at cloud. Palantir at software. Caterpillar at the machines. All three in 48 hours.
What's Moving
- Power segment grew 17% on turbine and large engine demand for data centers
- Construction segment jumped 35% on explicit AI infrastructure spending
- Texas announced Monday that all new data center projects will require PUCT and ERCOT audits
The Read
The Texas ERCOT interconnection queue jumped from 233 gigawatts in January to 474 gigawatts today. Roughly 90% are data centers. Caterpillar's 35% construction surge is the demand signal. Texas's freeze is the supply signal. The bottleneck is not capital or compute anymore. It is the power grid.
Bessent Said a Hormuz Deal Could Come Tomorrow. WTI Dropped Hard.
Bessent told CNBC the U.S. and Iran may reach a deal tomorrow, with freedom of movement for commercial ships and no Iranian toll. WTI dropped sharply. The 10-year yield fell back below pre-Fed-meeting levels.
The relief extends beyond oil. Bessent named fertilizer, refined products, and industrial gases as supply chains that normalize when Hormuz opens. Aramco's CEO noted it would take up to 18 months to replenish the 2.6 billion barrels lost since February. The market may be pricing peace before the supply arrives.
The Read
The Fed's September hike case just got complicated in both directions. Lower oil eases inflation and gives Warsh cover to hold. But Aramco's 18-month rebuild timeline means the structural supply shock does not reverse immediately. September's decision may land before WTI settles into its post-deal range. The bond market already moved. The Fed has to decide before it knows if the move was justified.
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Palantir Surged 26%. Deutsche Bank Called It "Several Steps Ahead" of All Software.
Palantir surged 26%, its biggest single-day gain since February 2024. Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy, naming it "several steps ahead of the rest of software." The specific differentiator is AI sovereignty: Palantir promises customers their data never becomes training data for the labs competing with them.
Two frontier AI labs hacked real companies in the last two weeks. Every time that happens, Palantir's pitch gets easier. The stock was down roughly 11% for the year heading into today. The institutions that held through the drawdown are now getting paid.
What's Moving
- Deutsche Bank: Palantir is the specific AI software winner, upgrading to Buy
- Benchmark kept Hold, noting valuation assumes 80-90% near-term growth sustained
- U.S. revenue made up 81% of total. International is the next test
The Read
AI software just got its verified winner. Palantir's 149% U.S. commercial growth is not a fluke. It is the result of a specific product positioning that the frontier labs cannot match without changing their business model. AMD (AMD) reports after the bell today. If compute confirms alongside software, the AI stack validated from chip to enterprise contract in a single earnings week.
SpaceX Reported Its First Earnings. Options Priced a $225 Billion Swing.
SpaceX reports its first-ever public earnings after the bell. Options priced a 15% move in either direction, roughly $225 billion in market cap. Microsoft's implied move last week was 6.6%. That gap tells you everything about how much uncertainty surrounds the first financial look inside the most hyped IPO of the decade.
Short sellers held roughly 63% of the free float on loan, with roughly $18 billion in paper gains heading in. Thursday begins rolling insider lockup expirations. The stock entered the report down more than 50% from its June peak.
What's Moving
- Options implied 15% move vs 6.6% for Microsoft last week
- Short interest at 63% of free float, shorts up roughly $18 billion heading in
- Thursday lockup expirations begin. Supply pressure is structural
The Read
Two outcomes are live and roughly equally priced. If Starship timeline clarity and the Google compute contract economics justify the valuation, shorts cover hard and the lockup pressure becomes secondary. If the numbers disappoint or Musk is vague on positive free cash flow, Thursday's unlocks add to the supply. The result tonight is the specific catalyst that separates which scenario plays out.
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Bezos Sold $4 Billion in Amazon. He Did It the Day It Crossed $3 Trillion.
Bezos filed to sell roughly 15 million Amazon shares worth approximately $4 billion under a plan adopted in November 2025. The sales executed Monday, the day Amazon crossed $3 trillion. Amazon fell over 2% after the filing became public.
The plan predates the rally, which is the legal separation from opportunistic selling. But Q2 net income included roughly $53 billion in Anthropic paper gains. Part of the $3 trillion is paper, and Bezos knows that better than anyone.
The Read
Bezos filed before Q3 answers whether the Anthropic mark compresses. If it does, Amazon's reported earnings reverse through the same channel they inflated. He gets $4 billion at the peak of that channel. That is not bearish on the business. That is a person who reads income statements for a living, doing exactly what you would expect them to do.
Caterpillar confirmed data centers are driving record industrial revenue. Bessent put a specific date on a Hormuz deal and WTI dropped hard. Palantir gave AI software its first verified winner. SpaceX reported into the most one-sided short setup of any mega-cap in years. And Bezos sold $4 billion the day Amazon crossed $3 trillion on paper gains.
Wednesday brings ADP, ISM Services, and Cook. The data week is not close to done.
