
MARKET PULSE Bank Shares Fell After Their Results While Memory Stocks Kept Sliding The Dow fell 0.35% to 51,670 on Tuesday, the S&P 500 ended little changed and the Nasdaq slipped 0.15%. Memory makers weighed for a second day, and Micron (MU) fell 3.6%. All four banks that reported closed lower. Citigroup (C) fell 5.6%, Wells Fargo (WFC) 3.1% and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) 0.9%. Goldman Sachs (GS), up as much as 4% early, ended down 0.2%. Treasuries rallied as the cash market reopened after Monday's holiday. The 10-year yield fell to about 5.19% early, off last week's 24-year high, then gave some back. September consumer prices arrive Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Economists surveyed by FactSet expect a 0.5% monthly rise and 3.6% from a year earlier, with core prices up 0.2% from August. Investor Signal Kalshi's October hike contract rose to 22 cents from 17 before easing to about 20 by early afternoon. Its December quarter-point-hike contract traded near 74 cents. A hot core reading could put October back in play and test the bond rally.
BANKS WATCH Goldman's Stock Desk Took In More From Lending to Traders Than Trading With Them JPMorgan, Goldman and Wells Fargo showed the same three patterns on Tuesday. Equities trading revenue rose from a year earlier at all three: 72% at Goldman, 49% at JPMorgan and 21% at Wells Fargo. Fixed income was flat to lower. At Goldman, equities financing, which includes prime brokerage, rose 96% to $3.37 billion. That topped the $3.08 billion from equities intermediation, its trading with clients. Financing revenue tracks how much clients borrow rather than how much they trade. Capital ratios fell at all three from June. Goldman's dropped to 12.4% from 12.9%, JPMorgan's to about 13.9% from 14.2%, and Wells Fargo's to 10.0% from 10.3%. JPMorgan cut net buybacks to $664 million. Credit pressure showed up in lending to companies. JPMorgan added $452 million to reserves in its corporate and investment bank. Goldman's $368 million provision came mainly from wholesale loan impairments. Wells Fargo's commercial charge-off rate rose to 0.18% from 0.10% in the second quarter, matching the year-earlier rate. Investor Signal At JPMorgan and Goldman, risk-weighted assets rose as their balance sheets expanded, while capital was roughly flat. Wells Fargo tied its decline to unrealized losses from higher rates. Bank shares entered the reports more than 14% below their August peak. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report Wednesday, and matching patterns there would point to an industry trend.
AI AND CHIPS WATCH Lenders Want to Share Their Data-Center Risk. Memory Stocks Kept Falling. JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking and MUFG are exploring sales of data-center loan risk, the Financial Times reported. The report said they are nearing internal limits on AI exposure. Broadcom's chief, Hock Tan, said Monday that capital "might be the biggest constraint" on AI. He also said demand for computing exceeds supply and could stay that way through 2029. Korea's Kospi fell 5.46% to its lowest close since July 30. A 5% drop in index futures briefly halted program trading. SK Hynix fell about 10% and Samsung Electronics about 7.4% after a Chinese rival reported memory-chip progress. Investor Signal In Tan's account, demand is not the constraint. The open question is who pays for the buildout and at what price. Nvidia-backed Firmus shelved a $5 billion share sale last week. ASML reports Wednesday and Taiwan Semiconductor Thursday, and their results should show whether capital is slowing spending.
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BANKRUPTCY WATCH Getty's Shareholders Would Get Nothing. Its New Owners Commit Up to $533 Million. Heavy debt and legal bills caught up with Getty Images (GETY). It agreed to a restructuring that hands the whole company to the Getty family and Koch's investment arm. They committed up to $533 million of new equity. Getty carried about $2.1 billion of debt at June 30. Bondholders agreed to retire $270 million of unsecured notes, and secured lenders agreed to lower interest costs. The shares fell about 68% on Monday, to about a penny and a half. Getty listed through a blank-check merger in 2022 at a value of about $4.8 billion. Investor Signal Creditors kept most of their claims, and shareholders stand to lose theirs. The plan still needs creditor votes and court approval. The value of the reorganized company has not been disclosed. The Chapter 11 filing, expected in the coming weeks, should show what the new owners are paying for the whole business.
CRYPTO WATCH Ether Funds Saw Outflows for a 10th Straight Day. Stablecoins Have Stopped Growing. U.S. ether funds lost $85.4 million on Monday, their 10th straight day of outflows. BlackRock's fund accounted for about 88%. Ether traded near $2,500 late Tuesday, up more than 2% on the day. Coinbase's bitcoin premium has been negative for 20 straight days, meaning U.S. buyers are paying less than offshore traders. The Financial Stability Board told G20 officials that stablecoins total about $300 billion, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. Its chair's letter also flags sovereign-bond volatility, private-credit vulnerabilities and AI risks. Investor Signal The FSB's risk list reads like Tuesday's bank and chip news. A flat stablecoin supply suggests little new dollar money is entering crypto. U.S. fund buyers are stepping back while Treasury yields sit above 5%. A day of ether fund inflows would be an early sign that U.S. demand is returning.
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PREDICTION WATCH Most Americans Oppose Betting on War. Polymarket Still Lists It. Wagers on U.S. military action drew 65% opposition and 8% support in a Reuters/Ipsos poll of 4,506 adults. About 60% opposed betting on election results, including 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans. Kalshi says military operations are off-limits, while Polymarket lists contracts on U.S. strikes in Yemen. Its line on no U.S. strike by Oct. 31 rose to about 85 cents by early afternoon, from 81.5 cents overnight. The Saudi-led coalition told civilians to leave a Sanaa fuel depot ahead of an "operation," and Houthi media reported a strike there. The Houthis threatened Saudi oil sites. President Trump criticized the Houthis but announced no U.S. strike. Investor Signal That price implies about a 15% chance of a qualifying U.S. strike. Only direct U.S. strikes count. The price rose over the same hours the coalition prepared its own operation, and the trading data do not show why buyers stepped in. The poll does not decide the legal fight between states and federal regulators. It does shape the politics around it, three weeks before the Nov. 3 midterms.
CLOSING LENS The big banks showed money flowing to traders on Tuesday, and their capital ratios slipped. A leading chip supplier said money may now limit AI, and memory stocks fell hardest in Seoul. Getty showed how heavy debt can leave shareholders with nothing. Wednesday brings consumer prices, two more big banks and ASML's results. Together they will show whether the cost of money is easing or still climbing.
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