Apple and Palantir Beat | Oracle Priced $20 Billion of Stock | A Strike Report

Seoul Extended the Chip Selloff. Australia Raised Rates Again.

South Korea's Kospi fell 3.6% on Tuesday, with Samsung down 4.1% and SK Hynix down 5.0%. It followed a 3.4% drop in the Philadelphia chip index on Monday, when the S&P 500 turned a 1.1% gain into a 0.5% loss.

S&P 500 futures were slightly lower early Tuesday, and Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 0.3%. AMD (AMD) traded about 2% higher before its report after the close.

Australia raised its cash rate a quarter point to 4.85%, its fifth increase this year. Three of nine board members voted to hold. The central bank named AI-related investment as one source of rising goods prices.

U.S. spot bitcoin funds lost about $1 billion over Friday and Monday, roughly erasing their net inflows for the year by one tally. Coinbase (COIN) hit a new 52-week low on Monday.

September job openings data arrive Tuesday morning.

Investor Signal

Tuesday's news shows AI adding costs as well as revenue. Memory prices are squeezing Apple's margins, and Australia's central bank linked some goods inflation to AI investment. Oracle is paying at least 7% on new debt as it builds out AI capacity. AMD's results tonight are the next test of AI chip demand after chip stocks sold off in New York and Seoul.

Apple Set a September-Quarter Record. Memory Costs Cut Its Margin Outlook.

Apple (AAPL) reported record September-quarter revenue of $114.5 billion, up 12%. Earnings of $2.10 a share beat the $1.99 estimate, and iPhone sales rose about 17% to $57.6 billion.

Apple guided December-quarter gross margin to 45% to 46%, down from 47.9%, mainly on higher memory costs plus Siri AI rollout costs. It expects services revenue to grow 8% to 9%, below the roughly 10.7% analysts expected.

About one point of the quarter's 47.9% margin came from tariff refunds. Without them, the outlook implies a drop of one to two points, not two to three. The shares closed at $338.32 on Monday and traded about 4% lower before the open.

Investor Signal

Memory has become a cost problem for one of the largest buyers of chips. Apple says price increases offset part of it, and it still expects its biggest quarter ever. That points the selling at margins and services growth rather than iPhone demand. The next test is whether memory costs ease before Apple gives its March-quarter outlook.

Palantir's Revenue Nearly Doubled. Its New Contracts Grew 6%.

Palantir (PLTR) grew revenue 96% to $2.31 billion and raised its 2026 revenue forecast to about $8.53 billion. U.S. commercial revenue rose 148% to $984 million, passing U.S. government revenue for the first time.

The value of contracts closed in the quarter rose 6% from a year earlier, to $2.92 billion. Remaining U.S. commercial deal value rose 4% from the prior quarter, while U.S. commercial revenue rose 29%.

The stock closed at $178.34 on Monday and traded about 8% lower before the open.

Investor Signal

Revenue is growing faster than the backlog behind it. Contract signings are lumpy, so one quarter does not set a trend. Still, a valuation that assumes years of rapid growth needs new bookings to keep up with sales. Next quarter's U.S. commercial contract value is the figure to watch.

Oracle Priced $20 Billion of Stock and Notes. The Notes Pay Up to 8.65%.

Oracle (ORCL) priced 86.2 million shares at $116 and $10 billion of notes late Monday. Together they match the $20 billion limit on new capital through fiscal 2030 that Oracle set at its Oct. 28 investor day.

The $116 price is 2.6% below Monday's close of $119.10 and 19.7% below the $144.54 close on the day of the pledge. Because the price came in lower, Oracle is selling about 9.7 million more shares than its preliminary prospectus illustrated.

The five note series carry coupons from 7% to 8.65%, or about $777 million a year of interest. Both offerings are expected to close Wednesday.

Investor Signal

Oracle has now put a price on its AI capital. Its new notes carry coupons of 7% to 8.65%, and the stock was sold well below last week's levels. Those costs raise the return its data center build-out must earn. The cap excludes refinancing, and Oracle says proceeds may repay debt, so how much of the raise counts against the cap is unclear.

Oil Regained a Quarter of Its Drop After a Strike Report. Six Ceasefire Bets Settled "No."

U.S. crude settled down 7.4% at $96.46 on Monday as hopes for diplomacy grew. That evening, a report citing U.S. officials said the U.S. had struck Iran's Qeshm Island. U.S. officials, speaking anonymously to several news outlets, called it limited and defensive. Central Command did not comment.

Crude traded near $98.50 early Tuesday, up about 2%, regaining about a quarter of Monday's drop. Diamondback Energy (FANG) raised its base dividend 7.3% after Monday's close. Its full-year free cash flow outlook is based on futures prices from Oct. 30, when crude settled at $104.12. Crude now trades about $5.60 below that level.

Polymarket's Nov. 15 ceasefire contract fell from 54 cents to 12 cents within minutes of the report and later resolved "No," along with five other dates. The report also described earlier undisclosed strikes, and contracts for Oct. 31 and Nov. 2 are now under dispute.

Investor Signal

Crude kept most of Monday's diplomacy discount through the strike report. The ceasefire contracts asked only whether a U.S. strike hit Iranian land, so they flipped at once. Oil traders appear to read a small, defensive strike as no threat to supply. A wider Iranian response would test that reading while traders priced a December Fed hike near three in four as of Monday.

Senate Contracts Sit Near 76 Cents. The Venues Pay Out Differently.

Americans vote in the midterms on Tuesday, and results arrive after the market close. Polymarket priced Democratic control of the Senate at 76.5 cents early Tuesday, and Kalshi at 76 cents. Each rose two to three cents from Monday afternoon.

Money resting on Polymarket's Senate order book fell to about $977,000 from about $2.6 million a day earlier.

Kalshi can settle early once major media outlets agree on the result. Polymarket waits for official results and credible reporting, so a close race can tie up money for weeks. Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi and its co-founders last week, and Robinhood (HOOD) has restricted political contracts for users there.

Investor Signal

The Senate price is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and the latest move came on a thinner book. A result that matches it would mostly confirm what is priced. An upset would test how quickly each venue settles. Robinhood's next quarterly report should show how much election trading added to its event-contract business.

Apple and Palantir beat, and both slid before the open. Apple's problem is cost, and Palantir's is a slower pace of new contracts. Oracle showed what AI capital now costs.

Oil kept most of its diplomacy discount through a reported strike. AMD reports tonight as voters choose a Congress, and both answers arrive after the close.