AMD Guided to $17 Billion | Democrats Won Congress | Meta Paid Up to 7.53%

Futures Shook Off an Election-Night Drop. AI Suppliers Led.

Nasdaq 100 futures fell more than 2% at their low as election results came in, then turned higher before dawn. Early Wednesday, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were each up about 1%.

AI suppliers led the rebound. AMD (AMD) traded about 3% above Tuesday's close, Arista Networks (ANET) about 7% and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) about 5%. CoreWeave (CRWV), which rents out AI computing power, traded about 5% lower.

Treasuries rallied, with the 10-year yield near 4.92% from 4.95% at Tuesday's close. Gold rose about 3% to near $4,050.

Rate bets went the other way. Kalshi's December Fed hike contract rose to 78 cents from 74 cents Tuesday afternoon. ADP payrolls, the Treasury's quarterly refunding plan and the ISM services survey arrive Wednesday morning. Arm (ARM), Qualcomm (QCOM) and AppLovin (APP) report after the close.

Investor Signal

AI demand and its funding cost have both risen since Tuesday. Suppliers raised the sales bar, while the biggest AI spenders paid more to borrow and strategists flagged the risk of tighter oversight from a new Congress. Companies selling to AI builders gained, while one renting out computing power fell. The suppliers' gains last only if their customers keep ordering as borrowing costs rise.

AMD Forecast About $17 Billion of Sales. Its Free Cash Flow Fell 64%.

AMD (AMD) expects fourth-quarter revenue of about $17 billion, about 27% above third-quarter revenue of $13.38 billion. Analysts had expected about $16.2 billion. Data-center revenue nearly doubled to a record $8.5 billion.

The shares fell about 19% in the three sessions through Nov. 2. They rose 3.7% Tuesday to close at $483.90, before the report.

The cash told a different story. Free cash flow fell 64% from a year earlier to $554 million, even as net income nearly doubled to $2.43 billion. Inventories climbed to $11.46 billion from $7.92 billion at the end of 2025.

Investor Signal

The forecast answers the demand doubt behind the three-day selloff. It also shows AMD paying up front, with cash tied up in inventory. If a large customer delays a project, AMD is left holding it. Year-end inventory and fourth-quarter sales against the $17 billion midpoint will show whether the build turns into revenue.

Democrats Won Congress. Bonds Rallied, and Gold Topped $4,000.

Democrats won control of both chambers. The Associated Press called the Senate shortly before midnight and has also called the House. Democrats flipped seven Republican-held Senate seats without losing any of their own, the AP said.

Bonds and gold rallied overnight. The dollar index fell about half a percent, and gold cleared $4,000. Stock futures swung from a drop to a gain, while Japanese chip and AI stocks fell sharply before recovering part of the loss.

Investor Signal

One reading is that divided government acts as a brake on new tax cuts and spending, which would mean less new Treasury debt. Lower long yields and a weaker dollar fit that view. Strategists in Tokyo said investors were also pricing a different risk, tighter oversight of the AI build-out. The futures reversal suggests neither has won. Final seat counts and Wednesday's session are the next tests.

Arista and Supermicro Beat Their Own Forecasts. Their Margins Slipped.

Arista Networks (ANET) grew revenue 58.5% to $3.66 billion, more than $350 million above its own forecast. It outlined about $18.5 billion of sales for 2027, growth of 38% to 40%. Its gross margin narrowed to 63.6% from 64.6% a year earlier.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) reported net sales of $19.9 billion for the September quarter, above the $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion it flagged last month. A year earlier it sold $5.0 billion. Its December-quarter guide is $19.5 billion to $21.5 billion, and its gross margin fell to 12.7% from 17.5% in the June quarter. Operations used $434 million of cash.

Private investors are paying up too. AI startup Fal said it has raised $1.65 billion across two rounds this year. [Its latest round, which Nvidia (NVDA) joined, reportedly valued it at $16 billion](https://www.financialmarkets.com/article/fals-reported-valuation-doubled-to-16-billion-in-about-six-months), double April's level.

Investor Signal

Demand ran ahead of each company's own forecast, but margins show where pricing power sits. Arista expects gross margins of 62% to 64% next year, and Supermicro's fell sharply from June. That suggests the biggest buyers are setting terms as volumes grow. Arista's fourth-quarter margin and Supermicro's operating cash flow are the next checks.

Meta Drew Orders of About Four Times Its Bond Sale. It Paid Up to 7.53%.

Meta Platforms (META) sold $15 billion of bonds in five parts, at yields from 5.85% to 7.53%. Orders reached as much as $58 billion, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the sale. That is about 3.9 times the deal, close to the 3.8 times its April sale drew.

The price was not the same. The longest bond, due in 2056, priced about 0.9 percentage point wider over Treasuries than a comparable April Meta bond. Meta shares traded about 1% above Tuesday's close.

Investor Signal

Lenders still want AI debt, but they now charge more for it. Higher funding costs raise the return each new data center must earn, and chip orders depend on those projects. Meta may sell euro bonds as soon as Wednesday, and that pricing will show whether the premium is still widening. The Treasury's refunding plan sets how much long government debt competes for the same buyers.

Crypto's Market-Structure Bill Faces a Democratic Congress. Bitcoin Erased Its Dip.

The crypto industry spent more than $300 million backing midterm candidates, split roughly evenly between the parties. Its main bill now looks harder to pass. The Clarity Act passed the House last year but failed a procedural Senate vote in September. Before the election, TD Cowen analysts said they would not expect passage within two years under a Democratic Congress.

Bitcoin fell to about $75,700 as results came in, then recovered to near $78,100 early Wednesday. Coinbase (COIN) traded about 1% above Tuesday's close.

Regulators are moving on their own. This week the CFTC cleared perpetual futures on individual U.S. stocks, and SEC staff called one network token a "digital commodity." A group backed by Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) and Citadel Securities sued to stop the stock perpetuals.

Investor Signal

Bitcoin's fast recovery fits the view that traders had largely priced the result. If the bill stalls, policy runs through the agencies, which Congress cannot easily overrule but can slow with hearings and confirmation fights. The lawsuit shows that route also faces challenges from inside Wall Street. Wednesday's ETF flows, the first since the vote, will show whether fund investors share that calm.

AI demand passed another test overnight. Chip, networking and server suppliers all beat expectations.

The cost of meeting it rose too. AMD tied up cash in inventory, and Meta paid more to borrow than in the spring. Bond prices fit one reading of the new Congress, as a brake on spending. The early drop in stock futures fit the other, as a risk to the AI build-out. The first full session will show which holds.