Amazon's Spending Outran Its Cash | Binance's Breach Was Frozen | Iran Bets Swung

Tech Futures Fell Again on the Last Trading Day of October

Nasdaq-100 futures fell more than 2% early Friday, and S&P 500 futures about 1%, after Amazon and Intel reported. Both guided below estimates. Investors marked them on what comes next, and who pays for it, more than on the quarter just reported.

On Thursday the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.4%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% and the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.99%. The Bank of Japan held its rate at about 1.25%, with one member voting for a hike. France's economy shrank 0.1% last quarter, while its preliminary EU-harmonized inflation rose to 3.8%.

Investor Signal

Traders trimmed bets on a December Fed hike. Kalshi's contract fell to 71 cents from 77 cents, and Polymarket's sits near 73.5 cents. Today's employment cost index is the next test, and a hot reading could push those odds back up.

Amazon Posted a Record Margin. Its Free Cash Flow Was $42 Billion Negative Over a Year.

Amazon (AMZN) posted its highest operating margin ever, 13.9%, and AWS revenue grew 39% to $46.0 billion. Sales of $201.9 billion, earnings of $1.89 a share and advertising revenue all came in below estimates. Amazon said Prime Day timing held back ad growth.

Spending is the bigger issue. Amazon spent $77.3 billion on property and equipment in the quarter, far above analyst estimates. Free cash flow over the past 12 months was an outflow of $42.4 billion, against an inflow of $14.8 billion a year earlier. Its chief executive said capital spending will be meaningfully higher next year. The shares were down about 7% before the open.

Intel (INTC) beat its own forecast, then guided fourth-quarter revenue about $1.6 billion below estimates. It cited a PC slowdown it expects to last at least through the first half of 2027, and an explosion at its plant in Israel. Data center and AI revenue rose 78%. The shares were down about 25%.

Investor Signal

Both companies guided below forecasts, and Amazon also missed on sales, earnings and advertising. Its spending ran well ahead of estimates, so cash flow fell further even as margins hit a record. Intel's data center growth was too small to offset weaker PCs. Amazon's 2027 spending figure, when it gives one, will show how long its cash flow stays negative.

Reddit Grew 53% and Fell About a Fifth. Its CEO Pointed to AI Search.

Reddit (RDDT) grew revenue 53% to $895 million and beat on revenue and earnings. Its fourth-quarter revenue forecast of $1.00 billion to $1.03 billion trailed estimates, and its 130.3 million daily users missed estimates. U.S. users fell 2% from a year earlier.

Chief Executive Steve Huffman tied the slowdown to fewer visitors referred by Google, part of Alphabet (GOOGL), as AI answers in search send fewer people to the site. The shares were down about 22% before the open.

Roblox (RBLX), Twilio (TWLO) and Pinterest (PINS) were down about 8% to 17% before the open after their outlooks disappointed.

Investor Signal

Reddit named a cause that does not end with one quarter. Search referrals fell by more than 1 million a week in October, the company said. If that pace continues, it warned, daily users could fall by a low double-digit percentage this quarter. Its next user count will show whether that warning holds.

Binance Put a Breach at $6.3 Billion. About Half Has Been Frozen.

Binance said a breach had an estimated impact of about $6.3 billion, more than four times Bybit's record $1.5 billion theft in 2025. It said about $3 billion had been frozen on-chain with partners' help, and Tether and Circle (CRCL) said they froze about $2.4 billion of stablecoins. Binance pledged to cover all losses. Withdrawals remain paused, and it expects them back within 48 hours. It later said it had found additional points of breach.

Bitcoin started falling before Binance said anything, in the hour Amazon and Intel reported. It fell below $76,500, and about $1.5 billion of leveraged positions were liquidated over 24 hours.

Investor Signal

Binance pledged to make users whole, and a few issuers and protocols froze about half the affected assets. That same control cuts against crypto's pitch of assets beyond anyone's reach. About $3.3 billion has not been frozen, and any sale of it could weigh on thin markets. Whether withdrawals reopen inside Binance's 48-hour window is the next test of confidence.

Iran Bets Priced a Strike, Then Took Most of It Back. Brent Rose Overnight.

Polymarket's contract on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire holding through Oct. 31 fell from about 96 cents to 68 cents late Thursday, then recovered to about 92 cents. The Nov. 8 contract fell from 80.5 cents to 45 cents before recovering to 73.5 cents. Each pays out only if no U.S. strike hits Iran by its date.

The slide followed reports that the head of U.S. Central Command briefed President Trump in person on Iran options. No strike was reported. Evening trading was thin after an hour-long halt on Polymarket's international exchange.

Brent's expiring December contract settled at $114.88 on Thursday and traded near $116 early Friday. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Thursday that tankers had hit mines near Hormuz, a claim not independently confirmed.

Investor Signal

The contracts gave back most of the strike risk overnight, but Brent rose. With December 2027 futures near $88, a gap of about $28 suggests traders see the shortage as immediate. The Oct. 31 contract expires Saturday, so the strike bet faces its first test this weekend.

Cohere Is Raising at Up to C$35.7 Billion. A Retailer and Ottawa Are Helping Set the Price.

Cohere completed the first close of a Series E targeting up to C$7 billion, which would value the Canadian AI developer at C$35.7 billion if fully raised. Schwarz Group, the European retailer, is leading, and Nvidia (NVDA) returned. Canada said it will invest up to C$1.6 billion in stages, and Cohere committed to keep its headquarters in Canada. The round follows Cohere's deal to combine with Germany's Aleph Alpha, which still needs regulatory approval.

Investor Signal

Strategic and government investors may value goals beyond returns, so Cohere’s price is not a clean read on what financial buyers would pay. The amount raised so far is undisclosed. The C$35.7 billion figure assumes the full C$7 billion arrives, and later closes will show whether it does.

Investors priced each story on who pays for what comes next. Amazon's record margin mattered less than a spending bill that keeps rising. Reddit's growth was outweighed by search traffic it no longer controls. Binance's bill shrank because a few issuers could freeze tokens, and Cohere's price was set partly by buyers with goals beyond returns.

Today's employment cost index will show whether interest rates add to that bill.