Trump called off Iran strikes and WTI dropped sharply. Amazon drove 75% of S&P earnings growth via Anthropic paper gains. The U.S. confirmed yen coordination. AstraZeneca and BMY are in merger talks. Payrolls Friday.
Trump Called Off the Iran Strike. WTI Dropped Sharply. Futures Are Higher.
Trump called off a planned Iran strike over the weekend and said talks would resume today. WTI dropped sharply at the open, reversing July's Iran-driven oil surge. Dow futures opened up over 500 points. Treasury yields slipped. The KOSPI gave back some of Friday's historic gain.
Payrolls land Friday. ISM Manufacturing opened the week. ISM Services, ADP, and a Fed Governor Cook speech fill the middle.
The Signal
The market has been here three times since February. The difference now is specific framework language for Hormuz reopening. If the strait opens, the Fed's September hike case weakens. If talks collapse again, every move today reverses. Both remain possible before Friday.
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Trump Called Off the Strike. Iran Talks Begin. Oil Dropped Sharply at the Open.
Trump called off the planned Iran strike, citing Saudi Arabia's preference for diplomacy. Iran's foreign minister said talks with Oman on Hormuz access are in "final stages." WTI dropped sharply, partially reversing July's roughly 25% surge.
OPEC+ simultaneously raised September output by 188,000 barrels per day, completing the unwinding of 1.65 million barrels of voluntary cuts. Two forces pulling oil lower at the same time is the most bearish oil setup since the war began.
What's Moving
- Trump said the deal would include immediate, complete opening of the Hormuz Strait
- OPEC+ September output increase is the sixth consecutive monthly hike
- Saudi Crown Prince personally intervened to push diplomacy over strikes
The Read
Previous pauses collapsed without framework language. This time, Hormuz reopening is named explicitly as part of the deal. If tanker transit resumes, the oil supply shock unwinds faster than Exxon or P&G's planning assumed. Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon (RTX), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) face the inverse trade today.
Amazon Drove 75% of S&P 500 Earnings Growth. Anthropic Paper Gains Did Most of the Work.
The S&P 500 is on track for a 47.4% blended Q2 earnings growth rate, the strongest since Q2 2021. Amazon (AMZN) drove more than three-quarters of the index's net dollar-level gains in the final week. The mechanism was not operations. It was a $50 billion paper gain from its Anthropic investment.
Alphabet posted a $99 billion Anthropic and SpaceX (SPCX) paper gain in Q2. Microsoft (MSFT) booked a $3.2 billion Anthropic mark. Three hyperscalers, one private company, driving the entire S&P 500 earnings story.
What's Moving
- AWS operating margin hit 39%, a real metric independent of the paper gains
- Microsoft added $450 billion in market cap on earnings day, the largest single-day gain ever for any U.S. company
The Read
Anthropic's private valuation is carrying three income statements simultaneously. If it compresses in Q3, all three reverse. Nvidia (NVDA) reports August 26, the first test of whether Amazon's demand signal to 2028 is backed by real supply.
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Bessent Confirmed the Intervention. He Wants the Fed's Dollar Backstop "Upsized."
Japan's finance ministry confirmed it conducted a coordinated yen-buying operation with the U.S. Treasury on Friday. Bessent confirmed the action and said the U.S. will not hesitate to participate again. The yen traded near 157 per dollar at the open.
Bessent then called for the Fed's FIMA Repo Facility to be "upsized." That facility lets foreign central banks draw short-term dollars against Treasury holdings without selling them outright. Upsizing it gives Japan a larger backstop without pushing yields higher. It requires FOMC approval, adding another item to Warsh's contested agenda.
The Read
Reports that the U.S. sold euros rather than dollars to fund the yen buying raised a specific credibility question. Peterson Institute's Robin Brooks said that mechanism signals Washington was avoiding selling U.S. assets, which undercuts the intervention. If that framing holds, the next action faces skepticism before it lands.
AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb Are Discussing a $400 Billion Merger.
AstraZeneca is in talks with Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) on a potential merger valuing the combined company at roughly $400 billion. AstraZeneca fell sharply in London on the report. The companies have not confirmed or commented.
The commercial logic is straightforward. AstraZeneca's cancer franchise generated roughly $25 billion in 2025 sales. Bristol Myers faces patent cliff pressure on Eliquis and Revlimid. AstraZeneca's London drop named the market's read: the acquirer pays the premium.
The Read
A $400 billion cross-border pharma merger under Trump is antitrust territory nobody has mapped yet. Eli Lilly (LLY), Pfizer (PFE), Merck (MRK), and Amgen (AMGN) all report earnings this week. Any commentary on the AstraZeneca-BMY framework extends the big pharma consolidation story into the live earnings cycle.
Buffett, Gates and Bezos Quietly Dumping Stocks—Here's Why
The world's wealthiest individuals are making huge moves with their money.
Warren Buffett just liquidated billions of shares. Bill Gates sold 500,000 shares of Microsoft. Jeff Bezos filed to sell Amazon shares worth $4.8 billion.
What is going on? One multi-millionaire believes they are preparing for a catastrophic event. But not a crash, bank run, or recession. It’s something we haven’t seen in America for more than a century.
Payrolls Friday. Every Data Point Before It Prices September.
September hike probability sits at 63.2% per CME FedWatch, up from roughly 40% before last week's decision. Three dissenters published coordinated statements naming a hike series as their preference. The data calendar now does the work they cannot. ISM Manufacturing opened the week. Cook speaks mid-week. ADP and payrolls close it.
The critical test is not the payroll count. It is wage growth. Average hourly earnings above 0.3% month-over-month hardens September regardless of the headline. Consensus expects roughly 87,500 July jobs.
The Read
Cook is the first Washington-based governor to speak since the decision. Seven governors need to move for September to happen. Three regional presidents have already declared. Cook speaks before Friday's payrolls number. Her position is the most important signal of the week.
Trump called off the biggest planned strike since WWII and oil dropped sharply. Anthropic paper gains drove most of the S&P's Q2 earnings story. The U.S. confirmed it is defending the yen and wants a bigger backstop. AstraZeneca and BMY are discussing a $400 billion deal.
The war premium unwound overnight. The inflation premium did not.
