Amazon Can Borrow Up to $80 Billion | Oil Fell 4% | A Net 2.1% Left Binance in Hours

Futures Bounced. The Fed Hike Bet Has Faded Over the Month.

S&P 500 futures rose about 0.5% early Monday and Nasdaq 100 futures about 0.8%. Friday brought the S&P 500's worst day since June and a 7.2% fall in the chip index, so the bounce is small next to the losses.

Futures imply about a 72% chance of a December Fed hike, with about 55 basis points of total tightening priced, down from more than 70 a month ago. The 10-year yield traded near 4.94% in Asian hours. Markets price about an 80% chance that Australia hikes Tuesday and close to 90% for the Bank of England Thursday.

Monday brings the ISM manufacturing index and the Treasury's borrowing estimates. Prediction markets put Democratic Senate control near 73 cents, and a close Alaska count could delay payouts for weeks.

Investor Signal

Lower oil eases one source of inflation pressure behind the Fed bet. A firm ISM prices gauge would test the softer Fed pricing before Friday's jobs report. The Treasury's estimates matter because AI borrowers could compete with the government for buyers of long-dated debt.

Amazon Can Borrow Up to $80 Billion Against the Hardware It Buys. Protection on AI Spenders Is Near Records.

Amazon (AMZN) disclosed a secured loan facility of up to about $80 billion, backed by technology equipment it buys. Draws can begin in early 2027, and nothing has been borrowed. Its existing credit lines and $17.5 billion term loan are unsecured.

Amazon's long-term debt rose to $173.1 billion at Sept. 30 from $65.6 billion at the end of 2025. Over the past year, free cash flow as Amazon defines it was negative $42.4 billion.

Default protection on Amazon, Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) and Oracle (ORCL) is at its highest in data going back to 2021. The figures come from Solve, as cited by the Wall Street Journal. AI-linked companies have raised about $466 billion of debt this year, against $101 billion in the same period of 2025, Morgan Stanley estimates. Protection on CoreWeave (CRWV) has traded above 1,000 basis points, a distress level.

Investor Signal

Collateral changes how one of the largest AI buyers pays. If the facility is drawn, its lenders hold a claim on equipment that unsecured creditors lack. Non-AI investment-grade spreads remain near their tightest in decades, so the stress is still narrow. The terms of Amazon's next bond sale will show whether lenders charge for the new layer.

Kioxia Posted a Record Quarter and Fell 16%. Its Price Gains Are Shrinking.

Memory maker Kioxia fell 15.8% in Tokyo on Monday after record quarterly operating profit. It guided this quarter's operating profit roughly flat, about 15% below analysts' expectations. Its average selling prices rose about 70% from the prior quarter in April to June, then by a mid-20s percentage in July to September. It expects a low-single-digit gain this quarter.

Memory is part of the hardware the AI spenders are financing. Sandisk (SNDK) fell 13.5% Friday despite beating forecasts. After Intel (INTC) warned of a memory-driven PC slowdown, AMD (AMD), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Arm (ARM) fell about 10% each on Friday. Apple (AAPL) and Palantir (PLTR) report after Monday's close.

Investor Signal

Slower memory price gains cut both ways. Supplier growth slows, and buyers' costs rise more slowly. Apple's gross-margin outlook is an early read on what memory costs a large buyer, and AMD follows Tuesday. Steady margins would suggest Friday's selling ran ahead of the evidence.

Oil Fell 4%. Strike Bets Barely Moved, and a Tanker Was Hit Inside the Gulf.

U.S. crude fell about 4.5% to near $99.40 a barrel early Monday, and Brent about 4.4% to near $108.40. The drop followed an Axios report that President Trump wants more time for diplomacy with Iran. OPEC+ kept December output targets unchanged.

On Sunday, a tanker was struck by two projectiles 72 nautical miles east of Ras Al Khafji in Saudi Arabia, UK maritime authorities said. That is deep inside the Gulf, not at Hormuz.

Prediction markets barely moved. Polymarket's contract on the ceasefire holding through Nov. 15 rose to 54 cents from 52.5 cents, still close to even odds of a U.S. strike by mid-November.

Investor Signal

Oil priced relief, while the strike contracts priced a delay. If the decision window has only moved past Tuesday, crude may have given back more premium than the risk supports. Heating oil, a diesel benchmark, fell less than crude, so that fuel cost eased less. A U.S. reply to Iran's conditional offer to reopen Hormuz is the next test.

Binance Reopened. A Net 2.1% of Customer Assets Left in the First Hours. The Proof Is Due Tuesday.

Binance reopened withdrawals on all 15 first-phase networks Sunday. In the first hours, it reported a net outflow of about $3.64 billion, or 2.1% of its $171 billion in customer assets. DefiLlama's on-chain tally over a full day put net outflows near $5.8 billion.

Early Binance data showed stablecoins leading the withdrawals, a sign customers were moving money off the exchange rather than selling crypto. Coinbase (COIN) fell 10.6% Friday, and bitcoin on Coinbase traded at a discount to Binance during the freeze.

Investor Signal

The 2.1% figure is Binance's own and covers less than a day. Its zero-knowledge proof of reserves, due by Tuesday, lets each customer check that a balance is backed. A clean proof would ease pressure on crypto stocks, while a delay would leave the backing resting on Binance's word.

Apollo and Blackstone Steer Credit Money Toward European Loans and Canadian Gas. Neither Gave Full Terms.

Apollo Global Management (APO) launched European Credit Company with more than €10 billion of lending capacity. Backers include the Abu Dhabi Investment Council and Japan's Norinchukin Bank. That is capacity, not money raised, and Apollo did not disclose the equity behind it.

Blackstone (BX) said its credit funds and four Canadian pension investors agreed to invest $3.1 billion to acquire 49.9% of a Mitsubishi unit. The unit holds Mitsubishi's LNG Canada stake. Mitsubishi valued the deal at about $1.6 billion, and neither explained the gap.

Investor Signal

Both deals steer institutional money toward lending and long-lived energy assets while protection on AI borrowers sits near records. Apollo reports Tuesday, when analysts can ask about its commitment and the new company's fees. A reconciliation of the two LNG figures would show what the $3.1 billion covers.

Monday's relief showed up in spot prices. Futures rose, crude fell and a frozen exchange reopened. The markets that price lasting risk were slower to move. Protection on the AI spenders sits near records, strike contracts barely moved and Binance's backing still awaits proof.

Apple's margins tonight and the Treasury's borrowing plans this week will show whether the relief has a foundation.