Truce Ends | Goldman Pulls Cuts | Apple Must Deliver

Friday's selloff was ugly. Monday's futures are trying to stabilize.

Oil is climbing after fresh Iran-Israel strikes, though well off the highs. Treasury yields remain elevated after last week's jobs surprise. 

Yet the Nasdaq is leading higher before the open. Investors are not ready to abandon tech after one bad day.

The market spent months ignoring risks. Now it has rates, oil, and geopolitics to juggle at the same time.

Investors are stepping back into tech, but yields remain elevated and oil is moving higher. That keeps pressure on valuations.

Wednesday's CPI report is now the next major test. A soft reading helps the rally recover. A hot one makes Friday's selloff harder to dismiss.

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The ceasefire that drove April's entire market recovery broke Sunday night. Iran fired missiles at Israel. Israel retaliated inside Iran. A White House official admitted Trump "underestimated the willingness of Iran to restart the conflict."

Then an Iranian official said something that cannot be walked back. A deal with Trump is "no longer feasible at this stage." That is not a negotiating move. That is a named endpoint to the diplomatic track the entire April rally was built on.

Three assumptions drove the April recovery. The ceasefire holds. The Fed gets room to ease. AI earnings justify current stock prices. All three are now in question on the same Monday morning.

What Broke Overnight

Sunday night removed the foundation. The question now is how much of the recovery unwinds alongside it.

The Level

WTI holding below $95 Monday means markets are absorbing the shock. A move above $95 reprices the entire inflation picture heading into the June 16 Fed meeting. That one number sets the week's tone.

Goldman Sachs no longer expects any Fed rate cuts this year. The bank pushed its first cut to mid-2027. This is the most significant single institutional forecast shift of the year and it landed Saturday morning.

The timing doubles the impact. Goldman's call and the ceasefire breaking hit simultaneously on Monday. Higher energy from renewed conflict feeds directly into the inflation data the Fed is already struggling with.

Warsh chairs his first meeting in nine days. He arrives with no institutional consensus for cuts, a labor market running hot, a ceasefire broken, and his preferred inflation gauge flagged as unreliable by the person who created it.

The June Decision

Any Fed governor speech before Wednesday's CPI that emphasizes patience names the internal committee resistance. Silence confirms Goldman's hawkish read. Wednesday's CPI now carries the weight of the entire June 16 decision.

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Apple (AAPL) holds its developer conference today with a rebuilt Siri powered by Google's (GOOGL) Gemini technology. The original Siri launched 16 years ago. Apple never delivered on that promise. It settled a lawsuit over features it marketed but never built. Today is the attempt to finally change that.

This matters beyond Siri. Apple controls AI distribution for over a billion users. More than any AI model company reaches directly. For two full years it has been a bystander while Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google built the applications that run on Apple's hardware.

A Siri that actually works converts that bystander position into a toll booth. Every AI company wanting consumer access must negotiate with Apple or compete directly against it.

What's At Stake

There is no middle ground at this valuation with a two-year track record of missed AI promises.

The Delivery

Apple either delivers a genuine step-change today or confirms it cannot. The stock price already assumes delivery. The history suggests skepticism. One keynote settles the argument.

SpaceX was always going to be a conviction test. Thursday's pricing now arrives into a broken ceasefire, Goldman killing the rate cut thesis, and Korean chip stocks down nearly 10 percent. None of that was in the roadshow deck.

But one part of the SpaceX thesis actually gets stronger when conflict escalates. The U.S. government is SpaceX's largest single client. Two major Pentagon contracts were awarded in the past month alone, both fast-tracked through channels that bypass standard procurement. White House officials confirmed the government cannot cancel SpaceX contracts even when Musk and Trump feuded.

When the ceasefire breaks and conflict escalates, SpaceX's military satellite network becomes more strategically essential, not less.

What Government Revenue Means

The Pricing

Whether Thursday's book fills on government revenue conviction or AI upside hope is what the pricing reveals. Those are two very different bets at the same price.

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Jensen Huang flew to Seoul and announced a multiyear partnership with SK Hynix to develop memory for AI factories. He called SK Hynix Nvidia's (NVDA) largest memory partner. He said the memory shortage will persist for years. Samsung announced Nvidia-powered data center plans the same visit.

Korean chip stocks opened down nearly 10 percent Monday morning anyway.

Both things are simultaneously true. Huang is signing multi-year agreements confirming AI demand persists for years. The stocks of his largest partners are falling because the rate environment required to fund that demand just shifted under them.

Huang's response to the selloff was characteristically Huang. "Everybody should be very excited. They can now buy stock at a cheaper price."

The Divergence

Nvidia holding while the broader chip sector falls is the most important signal of the morning. Nvidia holding means Friday was sector-wide repricing, not an AI demand story. Both moving together means something bigger is resetting.

Monday opened with the April recovery's foundation removed overnight.

The ceasefire is over. Goldman killed the rate cut thesis. Apple needs to finally deliver on AI today after two years of promises. SpaceX prices Thursday into the worst possible backdrop. Nvidia is in Seoul signing deals while his partners' stocks fall.

The assumptions that built the rally are being tested all at once.