SpaceX Tests History | Pope Targets AI Power | Bonds Challenge Stocks

Stock futures surged early Tuesday. 

Dow futures led gains, rising over 300 points. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures also moved higher. Oil prices dropped sharply on hopes of progress in U.S.–Iran talks.

Markets reopened after the holiday with strong momentum. Lower crude prices eased inflation fears. Investors are watching whether diplomatic progress continues to hold.

Falling oil is improving risk sentiment. It is easing pressure on rates and valuations. But policy uncertainty remains in focus.

Elon has reportedly filed to take SpaceX Public... in an IPO that's expected to hit a $1.75 trillion valuation.

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Trump posted that talks were "proceeding nicely." Senior officials told Fox News the deal was 95 percent complete. Then U.S. Central Command launched fresh strikes inside Iran targeting missile sites and boats planting mines. All of this happened on the same morning.

This is the third exchange of fire since the April ceasefire. The U.S. calls it self-defense. Iran calls it escalation. 

Then a new condition appeared. Trump linked any deal to Arab nations signing the Abraham Accords. Pakistan, the primary mediator, immediately said the two issues cannot be connected. That sentence ended a negotiating structure that took weeks to build.

Why It Matters

Oil markets splitting on the same headline is the clearest possible sign of investor confusion. Both outcomes are being priced simultaneously, which means neither is being priced correctly.

The Lag

Under the framework being discussed, Iran clears mines for 30 days after signing. Full normalization comes weeks after any announcement. Deal optimism is not pricing that gap.

Three LNG tankers and a supertanker moved through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, 125 to 140 vessels transited daily. The math is not flattering.

Iran is not reopening the strait. It is selectively permitting specific ships to specific destinations on its own terms. Pakistan, China, and India are first in line. Europe and the U.S. are not in the queue yet.

The ECB said it should raise rates in June regardless of any deal, because energy inflation is already embedded in the European economy. A press release does not undo four months of price increases.

Under the 30-day framework being discussed, full passage resumes only after mine clearing is complete. The first tankers moving are a signal, not a solution.

The Queue

Asian buyers made deals early and get supply first. Everything else depends on mine clearing, insurance markets, and shipping capacity normalizing together. None of those move on a headline.

Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed Chair Powell recently summoned the CEOs of America's biggest banks to an emergency meeting over one AI lab's breakthrough. 

The Fed, Treasury, and virtually every major bank on Wall Street believes it could reshape the entire U.S. financial system. 60-Year Wall Street legend Marc Chaikin – whose system pinpointed Nvidia in 2014 before it soared 55,000% - has identified a way to invest in this lab for just $40 before it goes public. 

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SpaceX is targeting a $2 trillion valuation this month. Starlink generates $11.4 billion in revenue with 63 percent EBITDA margins. The AI segment lost $2.5 billion in Q1. Two very different businesses, one ticker, one price.

The historical data on mega-IPOs is consistent and mostly ignored. Of 36 companies that went public above $15 billion, only nine beat the S&P 500 from their first-day close. Companies trading above 40 times sales saw an average three-year drop of 45 percent. SpaceX would trade at 93 times trailing sales.

The Nasdaq fast-entry rule means index funds are forced buyers within 15 days. That creates immediate institutional demand that early private investors can sell directly into.

The Setup

SpaceX's floor is a profitable satellite business with no real competition. The ceiling is a $26.5 trillion addressable market from its own prospectus.

The Frame

The story is not the IPO. It is what happens six months after. That is when real price discovery begins and the lock-up math becomes everyone's problem.

Pope Leo XIV issued his first formal papal letter and made AI the central subject. He compared the AI race to the Tower of Babel, called for independent oversight, and condemned autonomous weapons. Anthropic co-founder Christopher Olah stood alongside him at the presentation.

Leo explicitly invoked Leo XIII's 1891 encyclical "Rerum Novarum," which shaped European labor law for over a century. He is signaling this document is meant to do the same for AI.

The timing is pointed. Trump delayed his AI executive order last week. The U.S. is using Anthropic's AI in the Iran war despite previously blacklisting it. The backlash already existed. Leo gave it the most durable institutional framework in human history.

The Duration

Encyclicals outlast administrations, elections, and companies. This argument will still be cited when today's AI companies have been through three product cycles.

I know because I've seen the evidence firsthand.

On March 2nd — three days after the first missiles hit — I sat across from two U.S. Congressmen in back-to-back private meetings.

Those meetings pointed me toward something I spent weeks verifying.

The real purpose behind the strikes. The real objective. And the single company at the dead center of all of it.

This isn't random. It's a calculated Two-Front Economic War.

And there's one company positioned right at the heart of it.

See the strategy behind the Iran war — and the company at the center of it

The sooner you understand what's really happening — the better positioned you'll be before August 12th.

— Dylan Jovine, Founder, Behind the Markets

The gap between stock returns and government bond yields has nearly disappeared. The 10-year Treasury is at 4.57 percent, up sharply since the war began. Stock valuations have not adjusted to match. This last happened during the dot-com era.

Bond markets are pricing persistent inflation and a Fed that cannot cut. Equity markets are pricing AI earnings growth and a deal ending the energy shock. Both narratives are held by the same investors. One of them is wrong.

The AI earnings story needs to overcome rising discount rates on future profits. That is not a modest assumption at current valuations.

What the Math Shows

The Dependency

Oil at $100 through late summer changes the formula. The bull case needs a deal, a reopening, and falling oil prices. All three depend on a 30-day mine-clearing timeline nobody has guaranteed. The premium is gone. The risk is not.

The week opened trying to price two incompatible outcomes.

Peace and fresh strikes. A deal almost done and a new condition nobody agreed to. Stocks near records while bonds offer nearly the same return. The Pope weighed in with an argument that outlasts every company mentioned in it.

The contradictions are holding. For now.