SpaceX Files S-1 | Warsh Gets Cover | Google Ends Links

U.S. futures moved higher as the recent global bond selloff cooled. 

Treasury yields eased after several days of sharp moves higher, helping tech sentiment recover. Nasdaq-100 futures led gains ahead of Nvidia earnings later today. 

Oil pulled back after tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz, easing immediate supply fears. Markets are also watching for SpaceX’s IPO filing, which could further boost AI and growth sentiment.

Falling yields are giving growth stocks room to rebound after recent pressure. Investors are rotating back into AI and technology names as bond markets stabilize. Markets still remain highly sensitive to inflation and oil headlines.

Something unusual is happening beneath the surface of the stock market.

Big money is quietly fleeing one group of stocks and piling into another.

This kind of split has only happened a few times in the last 125 years.

Each time, one side collapsed while the other created 10x–30x winners.

See which side this financial expert believes wins next.

The largest IPO in history gets its official documents today. 

SpaceX chose Goldman Sachs (GS) as lead bank. Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan follow. The last time Goldman led a Musk company was Tesla's (TSLA) 2010 listing. It was the same bank order then too.

SpaceX is targeting $75 billion at a valuation above $2 trillion. The filing follows February's merger with xAI. For the first time, Starlink revenue and xAI financials become public.

SpaceX also confirmed plans to buy Cursor, an AI coding startup, 30 days after the IPO closes. If the deal falls through, SpaceX pays a $10 billion breakup fee.

What the Filing Reveals

The Cursor acquisition is embedded in the IPO filing itself. That tells institutional investors exactly where the first major post-IPO capital goes.

The Number

If the S-1 shows a standalone xAI revenue line, every private AI valuation reprices immediately. That single number converts AI infrastructure from a story into a comparable with a public price.

Bond yields kept rising Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury hit 4.687 percent. That is the highest since January 2025. The 30-year climbed near 5.2 percent, an 18-year high. The S&P fell for its third straight session.

The important detail is not the headline yield. It is real yields, meaning returns after inflation is accounted for. Real yields surged sharply this week. When real yields rise, stocks face direct pressure. Revenue growth alone cannot offset it.

Nvidia reports into this environment tonight. If guidance disappoints even slightly, the reaction will be faster and larger than usual.

The Setup

Nvidia earnings into rising real yields is the most loaded event in markets this year. The bond market is tightening conditions at the exact moment the AI rally needs a clean beat.

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Options markets are pricing a 6.5 percent move in Nvidia (NVDA) tonight. In dollar terms, that is a $355 billion swing. That exceeds the market value of 90 percent of S&P 500 companies.

Data center revenue is expected to be near $73 billion. That is up about 79 percent from last year. Earnings per share are expected at roughly $1.75, up 116 percent. UBS flagged a possible $150 billion buyback announcement tonight.

Call options, bets the stock goes higher, just hit a five-year high. Almost everyone expects good news. Almost nobody is positioned for bad news.

What to Follow

When almost no hedges are in place, a disappointment hits harder and faster than normal.

The Clean Beat

Strong August guidance alongside a margin beat extends the AI rally. Anything short of that lands into a bond market already tightening on its own.

For 18 months, Trump pressured the Fed to cut rates publicly. Yesterday, he said he would "let him do what he wants to do." Markets price a 60 percent chance of a hike by December.

That shift did not happen by accident. FOMC minutes from April's meeting release today. They are expected to show four dissenting votes. Three members pushed for hike-leaning language, one pushed for an immediate cut. That shows the divided committee Warsh is inheriting. The White House likely saw what was coming and stepped back first.

Warsh gets sworn in Friday. His first public remarks after the ceremony are the clearest signal of where June's dot plot lands.

The Cover

Trump gave Warsh room to hike if data requires it. That room shrinks as midterm elections approach. The window between now and September is narrow and closing.

The reported SpaceX filing got Wall Street’s attention. But some investors believe the real catalyst is still ahead — and it centers around one date: June 1.

That’s why this may not be the email to “come back to later.”

When major market windows begin to close, most people don’t realize it until the crowd rushes in and the setup changes completely.

If June 1 unfolds the way some expect, today’s opportunity could look very different just days from now.

See Why June 1 Could Change the Entire SpaceX Story

For 25 years, a Google (GOOGL) search returned ten links to websites. That format drove most of Google's $280 billion in annual ad revenue. It sent traffic to publishers, retailers, and media companies globally. Google now announced it is gone.

The new experience uses AI agents that browse on your behalf. They generate custom visual responses. They monitor topics continuously. There are no links. There is no ranked list. There is a conversation.

The new interface arrives this week. Generative UI follows this summer. Both are free.

What This Removes

Google's ad model depends on users clicking to other websites. The new model keeps users inside Google. Both cannot be fully true at the same scale.

The Disruption

Every business built on Google search traffic just had its foundation replaced. Publishers, advertisers, and e-commerce companies have not fully processed it yet. When they do, the response will be significant.

The most consequential day in markets this year just arrived.

SpaceX files the largest IPO prospectus in history. Nvidia reports $355 billion into rising yields. Google eliminated the ten blue links. Trump gave Warsh permission to hike.

Every major assumption from 2025 is being stress-tested simultaneously.