Oracle Beat Big | Europe Hikes | SpaceX Prices Tonight

Yesterday ended with fear. Today opened with buyers.

Futures are higher despite fresh U.S.-Iran tensions. Oil is slipping, yields are easing, and investors are stepping back into tech. Even Oracle's warning about soaring AI infrastructure costs failed to dent sentiment.

The market keeps choosing optimism. Traders are treating geopolitical headlines as temporary distractions and returning to growth. For now, lower oil and calmer yields matter more than conflict. The dip buyers are still in control.

Oracle (ORCL) numbers should have sent the stock soaring. Future contracted revenue surged significantly. Cloud revenue jumped 93 percent. Over half came from one customer.

Then Oracle said it needs $40 billion more. On top of money already raised this year. The stock fell 10 percent overnight.

Here's the loop. Huge demand requires huge spending. Huge spending requires outside money. Outside money dilutes shareholders. Strong demand and a falling stock are now the same story.

What Makes This Different

Oracle's future now depends on OpenAI funding itself. If OpenAI's IPO struggles, Oracle's growth story wobbles too.

The Connection

Any analyst linking Oracle's OpenAI exposure to SoftBank's stalled loan would be telling. Two companies, one shared funding problem underneath them both.

Tech dropped over 10 percent from its early June peak. That's officially a correction. Chip stocks got hit even harder. Micron (MU), Marvell (MRVL), and Intel (INTC) all fell double digits.

Here's the calming part. The last two corrections both recovered. Demand never actually disappeared either time.

This time looks similar. Oracle's $638 billion in bookings. Super Micro's (SMCI) $39 billion in orders. Hyperscalers still planning to spend big this year.

What's Different This Time

Fundamentals look the same as before. Supply timing does not.

The Test

Whether tech stabilizes after SpaceX trades Friday tells everything. Stabilization confirms IPO rotation. Continued declines mean something else.

I know because I've seen the evidence firsthand.

On March 2nd — three days after the first missiles hit — I sat across from two U.S. Congressmen in back-to-back private meetings.

Those meetings pointed me toward something I spent weeks verifying.

The real purpose behind the strikes. The real objective. And the single company at the dead center of all of it.

This isn't random. It's a calculated Two-Front Economic War.

And there's one company positioned right at the heart of it.

See the strategy behind the Iran war — and the company at the center of it

The sooner you understand what's really happening — the better positioned you'll be before August 12th.

— Dylan Jovine, Founder, Behind the Markets

The European Central Bank raised rates today. First time since 2023. European inflation hit 3.2 percent, driven by the same energy story everywhere. Another hike is expected in July too.

Here's what makes this awkward for Warsh. European inflation is lower than U.S. inflation. Yet Europe is hiking while the Fed deliberates. That gap makes a Fed hold look more exposed.

Wednesday's CPI gave Warsh some breathing room. Core inflation came in soft. But a peer central bank tightening into lower inflation changes the optics fast.

What to Watch

The Pressure Point

If the ECB blames services inflation, not just energy, the "temporary shock" argument weakens everywhere. That argument is the main thing keeping a Fed hold defensible.

Visible ship traffic through Hormuz dropped to almost nothing. Four ships Tuesday. Zero Wednesday. Meanwhile U.S. forces struck Iranian targets after an alleged helicopter downing.

Tuesday's story was dark tankers quietly moving oil. That felt like relief. Wednesday's zero traffic is the opposite signal. The workaround only works because formal traffic basically stopped.

A real fix needs traffic at prewar levels. Dark flows cover only a sliver of that. This isn't stabilization. It's one channel barely functioning while everything else shuts down.

What's Happening Simultaneously

Trump escalating militarily while dismissing the inflation it causes is genuinely strange. Warsh inherits this entire mess at his first meeting.

The Number to Watch

Oil moving higher before SpaceX prices tonight confirms dark-flow relief was temporary. One price level tells the whole story.

Pull up Tesla's most recent SEC filing. Page 5.

And you'll see a single line showing $12 billion in revenue from a brand-new "super startup" Elon Musk has been quietly incubating inside Tesla.

This new "super startup" has nothing to do with cars or robots or space or AI…

But it sits at the center of what Blackstone calls "a $23 trillion investment opportunity."

And on July 22, Elon is expected to pull back the curtain and reveal exactly what he's building.

But Adam O'Dell already knows… and he reveals it all in this urgent video.

There's a material called indium phosphide. No substitute exists. It powers the optical chips inside AI data centers. China controls most of global production.

China has slow-walked export licenses since last year. Prices jumped sharply. One major supplier called it their biggest current challenge. Lumentum (LITE) is sold out through 2028 despite quadrupling output.

This is a quieter trade restriction. Choke the raw material, not the chip. No treaty gets violated. The supply chain just slows everywhere downstream instead.

Why This Matters Now

For anyone pricing AI infrastructure long-term, this barely registers. But it's locked in for years regardless.

The Watch

If Iran talks somehow touch indium licenses too, notice that. Two supply chokepoints, both solved through diplomacy, not markets.

Thursday stacked five signals before SpaceX prices tonight.

Oracle's blowout quarter came with a massive financing ask. Tech entered correction territory, though history says these recover. Europe hiked rates a week before the Fed meets. Hormuz traffic basically vanished while strikes continue. A quiet Chinese restriction is locking in chip shortages for years.

SpaceX prices into all of this tonight.