Nvidia Gives Up China | SpaceX Files S-1 | AI IPO Race

S&P 500 futures edged lower as investors digested another strong but high-expectation earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA). 

Tech sentiment remains firm, but reactions are more muted as valuations stretch. Intuit (INTU) slid sharply after weak revenue and job cuts, signaling pressure in parts of the software space. E.l.f. Beauty (ELF) gained on strong results, showing selective consumer resilience. 

SpaceX IPO filing added momentum to the private-to-public pipeline. Asian markets rallied strongly on AI optimism, led by chip-linked gains.

Markets are rewarding execution but punishing any misses. AI remains the core driver, but leadership is narrowing. Markets are rewarding execution and profitability over pure growth. This shift arrives at exactly the moment Anthropic reported its first profit and Nvidia gave up a market.

Companies are already delaying IPOs as SpaceX’s expected offering pulls capital toward what could be the biggest deal in market history. Bloomberg reported the shift, and Citigroup just joined the underwriting team.

But smart money isn’t only chasing the IPO. They’re positioning in the one chokepoint supplier SpaceX depends on to stay online.

Most investors may notice after the move.

See what insiders are buying before the IPO hits >>

Nvidia (NVDA) reported $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue, up 85 percent from a year ago. Net income was $58.3 billion, beating estimates by 36 percent. The company announced an $80 billion share buyback and raised its dividend. Historic numbers across the board.

Then Jensen Huang said Nvidia has "largely conceded" China's AI chip market to Huawei. The company is not counting any China chip revenue in its current quarter guidance. The stock fell after-hours despite the beat.

The market absorbed both facts at once. Record earnings on one side. The world's second-largest AI market written off on the other.

What the Numbers Say

Asian markets surged overnight anyway. SoftBank rose nearly 20 percent. SK Hynix and Samsung each jumped sharply.

The buyback provides a floor. The China concession removes a ceiling Huang had been citing for two years.

The Split

Nvidia's opening price relative to Wednesday's close is the verdict. A gap down that holds means institutions are selling into the buyback support. A recovery means the buyback won the argument.

SpaceX filed its S-1 Wednesday evening. 

The ticker is SPCX. The roadshow starts around June 4. The debut is targeted for around June 12. The valuation target is $1.5 trillion.

The filing tells three very different stories under one roof. Starlink generated $11.4 billion in 2025 revenue and turned a profit. The rocket and satellite business generated $4.1 billion but lost money. xAI generated $3.2 billion and burned $6.4 billion in losses, with capex annualizing to $30.8 billion just from Q1 alone.

The company lost $4.94 billion overall in 2025. Musk controls 85 percent of the vote.

Anthropic pays SpaceX $1.25 billion per month for compute capacity through May 2029. Tesla is mentioned 87 times in the filing.

The Two Theses

Any analyst separating Starlink from xAI in a valuation model before the June 4 roadshow gives investors the clearest picture of what they are actually buying. That analysis will matter more than the prospectus itself.

The Question

The $1.5 trillion valuation asks investors to pay for both businesses simultaneously. Starlink earns it. xAI is still making the case.

Even after the U.S. left the gold standard in 1971, central banks and long-term investors never stopped holding it.

Now interest is surging again.

This FREE educational guide breaks down exactly why — through historical context, not hype.

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Reagan Gold Group does not provide financial, legal, or tax advice. This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments carry risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult your licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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The minutes from Powell's final Fed meeting as chair landed. They confirmed what bond yields had been pricing for weeks. The committee is moving toward rate hikes, not cuts.

The "vast majority" of officials said inflation will likely stay above target longer than expected. A "majority" said hikes would become appropriate if inflation persists. Three officials had already formally dissented, wanting hike-leaning language immediately. The rest were moving in the same direction without dissenting yet.

The most significant detail was buried. Officials specifically named price increases in IT and software as contributors to inflation. That is the first formal acknowledgment that AI-related costs are flowing into the inflation data the Fed is trying to bring down.

Warsh is being sworn in Friday. He built his entire case for rate cuts on AI being disinflationary. His own committee's staff just said the opposite.

The Record

The staff analysis is now in the official minutes. Warsh cannot ignore it publicly. His first remarks after Friday's swearing-in tell you whether he accepts or challenges that view.

Anthropic disclosed to investors that it expects $10.9 billion in second-quarter revenue. That is a 130 percent jump from Q1's $4.8 billion. The company also projects its first operating profit of $559 million.

For context, Anthropic is growing faster than Zoom did during the pandemic. It is growing faster than Google and Facebook in the years before their IPOs. The business is also getting more efficient. Compute costs fell from 71 cents per revenue dollar in Q1 to a projected 56 cents in Q2.

This is not an AI research lab anymore. It is a scaled software business that happens to be built on AI.

The $900 billion funding round valuation now has a profit to back it up. That changes the IPO conversation significantly. OpenAI's most recent private valuation was $852 billion. Anthropic is about to surpass it with its first profitable quarter in hand.

The Race

OpenAI files its IPO paperwork as soon as Friday. Whichever company files first sets the valuation anchor the other gets measured against. That order matters more than either company's lawyers would admit publicly.

The rate-cut rally is already taking shape, and our analysts just pinpointed 10 stocks most likely to lead it.

They’ve dug through every chart, sector, and earnings trend to find companies positioned for explosive upside once the Fed eases.

From AI innovators to dividend aristocrats, these are the names attracting billions in early institutional money.

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The AI IPO wave just became a calendar. SpaceX roadshow starts June 4 with a debut around June 12. OpenAI files as soon as Friday targeting a fall debut. Anthropic targets October. Three of the most anticipated offerings in history are now stacked on top of each other.

The order of filings determines who sets the price and who reacts to it. SpaceX goes first at $1.5 trillion as a combined rocket and AI company. OpenAI goes next as a pure AI model company. Anthropic arrives last with its first profitable quarter already reported.

Each filing gets benchmarked against the one before it. SpaceX is the floor. Whatever OpenAI prices becomes the ceiling Anthropic either confirms or breaks.

Prediction markets shifted fast. Kalshi now gives OpenAI an 83 percent chance of beating Anthropic to the public markets, up from 32 percent before the filing news.

The investment banking fees across all three deals are estimated near $1 billion combined. Everyone has a reason to move quickly.

The Anchor

The first named anchor investor, a sovereign wealth fund or major pension, to commit to any of the three offerings sets the institutional tone for all of them. That name, when it surfaces, is the real signal.

Nvidia beat and gave up China in the same sentence.

SpaceX filed two businesses in one document, one worth the price and one still making the case. The Fed confirmed it is moving toward hikes. Anthropic posted its first profit. OpenAI files Friday.

The AI era just officially became a public market event.