Microsoft Valuation Debate Grows | Copper Reverses | Samsung Workers Quit

Stocks faded into the close as yields surged and tech momentum cracked. The Nasdaq led losses while semis reversed sharply after weeks of aggressive upside. 

Nvidia, AMD, Intel, and Micron all pulled back as traders locked profits. Treasury yields spiked after another week of hotter inflation data, pressuring growth stocks hardest. 

Oil held near elevated levels even as broader markets sold off. That divergence is worth noting. When energy refuses to follow equities lower, it signals the physical supply deadline is driving oil independently of daily risk sentiment. 

The Trump-Xi summit ended without major breakthroughs, disappointing investors hoping for stronger trade or geopolitical progress.

AI momentum remains powerful, but rates are becoming a bigger threat. Narrow leadership leaves markets increasingly vulnerable to sharp reversals.

Global oil inventories have fallen 250 million barrels in two months. The pace is faster than anything recorded before. The buffer that has kept fuel available through this crisis is running out.

Brent and WTI remain over $100 per barrel. Goldman Sachs is warning that India, Thailand, and Taiwan are approaching critical scarcity levels of diesel and fuel oil. U.S. diesel stocks could fall below 100 million barrels by end of May, the lowest since 2003.

Emergency reserve releases have slowed the crisis but have not stopped it. Replenishing the full deficit would require one million extra barrels per day for three years.

What the Numbers Say

The deficit keeps growing every day the strait stays closed. The joint statement from Beijing was a step. It was not a solution.

The Floor

A Brent close above $110 converts JPMorgan's June estimate from a warning into the market's active organizing deadline. That shift changes the energy story from slow burn to countdown.

Bill Ackman runs one of the most closely followed hedge funds in the world. His new core holding is Microsoft (MSFT), and the timing is deliberately contrarian.

Microsoft is down 15 percent this year and more than 25 percent from its peak. Ackman built the position since February because of that decline. He posted an 800-word case calling it "highly compelling."

His most striking claim is that Microsoft's stake in OpenAI alone is worth $200 billion. That is higher than the $135 billion figure disclosed in court last week and more than double Microsoft's own internal return target of $92 billion revealed at the same trial.

He made a similar contrarian bet on Meta (META) when it was down about 13 percent. That trade worked.

The Thesis

The market is discounting Microsoft's OpenAI stake too heavily and underestimating its core subscription business. If Ackman is right, both correct at the same time.

Most investors are distracted by headlines that won’t matter in a month. But there’s one date that could reshape the entire SpaceX setup: June 1st.

Some believe that’s when the window begins to close.

The biggest moves often happen before the crowd fully understands what’s happening. By the time the story dominates financial media, the easy opportunity may already be gone.

If SpaceX is on your radar, this may be the moment to pay attention — before everyone else does.

See Why June 1 Could Be a Major Turning Point.

Three major commodities sold off sharply in a single session. Gold fell 3 percent. Copper fell 3.4 percent. Silver dropped 8.5 percent. They usually move for different reasons. Friday they moved together.

The common cause is rising rate hike expectations. Five inflation data points came in above expectations this week. That raised the odds of the Fed hiking rates rather than cutting them. When rate hike fears rise, assets that do not pay interest become less attractive relative to bonds.

Gold's drop is the most counterintuitive. It normally rises during wars and inflation surges. The rate fear is outweighing the usual safe-haven demand right now.

What's Moving

Copper hit an all-time high earlier this week on supply shortage fears from the Hormuz closure. Now demand fears are pulling it back. Both forces are real and pulling in opposite directions.

The Test

Copper holding above $6 per pound through the close signals supply constraint is winning. A close below $6 signals demand fear is winning. That distinction shapes which inflation story leads next week.

Samsung is the world's largest maker of memory chips. Those chips go into AI data centers, phones, and laptops globally. Next Wednesday, 45,000 workers could walk off the job in the largest strike in company history.

The dispute is about bonuses. Samsung's memory chip division is generating enormous profits from the AI boom. Its foundry division, which makes chips for Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA), is losing money. Memory workers are being offered bonuses of 607 percent of annual salary. Foundry workers are being offered 50 to 100 percent. They are refusing.

JPMorgan estimates a strike could cost Samsung $14 to $21 billion in operating profit. Memory chips are already the binding constraint on AI data center buildout. Multiple major tech companies named chip supply as a limiting factor in recent earnings calls.

A strike at the world's largest memory producer adds a new disruption to a supply chain already under stress.

The Settlement

A revised Samsung offer before Wednesday removes the risk immediately. No announcement by Monday means the strike is live and memory chip supply becomes a Q2 earnings story across every major AI company.

That's not noise. That's capital rushing back into AI.

But here's what smart investors are starting to realize:

AI doesn't run on chips alone. It runs on data.

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Every model — ChatGPT, copilots, next-gen AI — depends on real human behavior. Clicks. Searches. Usage. That's the fuel. And it's getting harder to find.

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The traction is already there:

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See how Mode fits into the AI data economy before the offer closes

Disclaimer:  Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.modemobile.com. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile’s Regulation A+ Offering. Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur. The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period.

Cerebras (CBRS) had one of the strongest IPO first days in recent memory. It priced at $185, surged 68 percent, and closed at roughly $95 billion in market value. Today, it is trading down about 5 percent, and the reason is straightforward.

At $95 billion, Cerebras trades at 134 times its annual revenue. Nvidia (NVDA), the dominant AI chip company, trades at roughly 25 times. Even if Cerebras doubles its revenue this year, the valuation is still more than 50 times forward earnings. That math draws scrutiny after a 68 percent surge.

The customer concentration adds to it. In 2024, 86 percent of Cerebras's revenue came from just two government-backed entities in the UAE. The OpenAI and AWS deals represent real diversification but they are early. The AWS deal does not reach full production until next year.

The Valuation Reality

The 68 percent surge set the AI IPO demand floor for SpaceX and Anthropic. Friday's pullback adds the ceiling. Both numbers matter equally.

The Close

A close above $185 confirms institutions are holding. A close below signals the surge was retail-driven and larger investors are already trimming. That single price is the IPO market's most immediate signal.

The week ended with euphoria and reality colliding in the same afternoon.

Oil's buffer is almost gone. Samsung's workers vote next week. Gold and copper reversed in a single session. Ackman valued OpenAI at $200 billion inside a Microsoft position the market has largely ignored. Cerebras's math landed after the confetti.

The AI boom is real. So is everything pushing back against it.