GM Cuts EV | Nasdaq Bends Rules | Gulf Liquidates Bonds

Here we go again.

WTI opened above $102. That's the first thing the market saw this morning and it's setting the tone early. 

Tech futures are pointing lower before the first real trade clears. 

The Nasdaq is under pressure from the jump. 

Weakness is concentrated there, not spreading broadly yet. The S&P is leaning slightly lower. The Dow is holding better but not pushing anywhere meaningful.

Volatility is elevated heading into the first hours. Flows are defensive early. Nobody is in a rush to step in front of this.

The Oil Ceiling

Oil is deciding where the pressure goes. Until something changes on the oil side, the tape stays cautious, uneven, and reluctant to build on any bounce that shows up.

Elon Musk just triggered what some believe could become a $7 trillion AI market—and the window to position may be closing fast.

Behind it is a little-known firm controlling 38,000+ patents tied to this breakthrough.

It’s not Tesla. Not SpaceX.

With April 1 approaching, this opportunity may not stay under the radar much longer.

See the name and ticker now.

That's not a pivot. That's a confession.

Factory ZERO in Detroit, which makes the Silverado EV and Hummer EV, is idled until April 13. Thirteen hundred workers were sent home. 

GM has now written down $7.6 billion on its EV programs. On that exact same day, Flint Assembly added a sixth production day starting in June. That's 40,000 to 50,000 extra heavy-duty gas trucks per year, aimed directly at Ford's F-Series. EV demand collapsed when subsidies disappeared. Trucks didn't.

Here's the sequence that made this happen:

The bet is specific. GM is abandoning the future it spent $7.6 billion building and accelerating the present it knows how to sell. Buyers haven't traded down from trucks yet. GM is betting they won't long enough to matter.

The Calculation 

GM isn't confused. It's recalculating. The old math stopped working. The new math says trucks pay the bills while everyone figures out what comes next.

Custodial holdings of U.S. government debt have fallen $66 billion since the start of March. Lowest levels since 2012, when the Treasury market was a third of its current size. Middle East oil exporters hold around $300 billion in Treasurys. They are selling.

But this isn't a vote against the dollar. The war froze revenue streams and created immediate cash needs across Gulf economies. When you need cash and you hold Treasurys, you sell Treasurys. BofA calls it a war-driven liquidity need, not a structural shift away from dollar reserves.

The distinction matters long term. It doesn't change the short-term damage. Ten-year yields are up nearly half a point this month. The selling moved prices regardless of the reason behind it.

The Irrelevant Reason

The bond market doesn't care why you're selling. It only feels that you are. The motivation is reassuring. The price move is real either way.

I've worked for the CIA. Met four US presidents.

But meeting Elon Musk face-to-face changed everything.

My research now leads me to believe he'll announce the SpaceX IPO on March 26, 2026.

I'm sharing an "access code" to grab a pre-IPO stake. But only with the first 500 people today.

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SpaceX made early index inclusion a condition of listing on Nasdaq. So Nasdaq changed its rules. The new fast-entry policy takes effect May 1, right before SpaceX's expected June filing. That sequence isn't subtle.

Under the old rules, a company waited three months to a year before joining the Nasdaq-100. Now it takes 15 trading days. That waiting period existed for a reason. It let prices settle before institutional money was forced in. That protection is now gone.

Here's what changed and why it matters:

When SpaceX enters after 15 days, those funds must buy at whatever price the market has set. Former S&P Dow Jones CEO Alex Matturri said publicly that changing index rules to attract a listing is inappropriate. Nasdaq changed them anyway.

The Trade-Off 

The rules protected investors from buying overpriced shares at forced entry. Nasdaq removed that protection to win a listing fee. A passive fund holder didn't choose to own SpaceX. They won't choose the price either. Whatever the market sets on day 15, that's what they pay.

War-risk insurance in the Gulf just repriced by a factor of eight. Standard commercial policies don't cover war damage. Companies that dropped war-risk coverage to cut costs are now either uninsured or paying the new rate to get back in.

The Fairmont the Palm hotel in Dubai had terrorism coverage but not political violence coverage. That distinction cost the hotel its entire claim when it was set ablaze early in the conflict. More than 300 new insurance submissions have landed at major brokers in recent weeks.

Wynn is building a $5 billion casino near Hormuz. At 8% annual coverage that's $400 million a year in insurance costs alone. Every Western company with Gulf exposure is running that same math right now.

The New Cost 

The long-term Gulf thesis may still hold. The annual cost of testing it just went up eight times. That changes the math on every project still under construction.

Apple, Google, Tesla… 

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They earned their place over time.

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The Supreme Court voided $166 billion in tariffs from Trump's Liberation Day order. Largest illegal government levy in U.S. history. The refunds are owed. Getting them back is a completely different story.

Companies have to identify every wrongly taxed shipment, calculate the amount, upload spreadsheets to Customs, and wait for automated validation. As of March 6, less than 10% of eligible importers had even registered online. 

Investment firms are already buying refund claims at 70 cents on the dollar from businesses that can't wait. That discount is the market's read on how long this takes.

A Tampa luxury pen retailer says bankruptcy is coming by July if his $175,000 refund doesn't arrive. A Miami smartglasses founder needs his $300,000 back to fund Christmas inventory.

Large companies like Walmart absorbed the costs and are waiting quietly. Small businesses don't have that cushion.

The Backlog 

The refunds are real. The process is broken. The gap between those two facts is where small businesses are disappearing right now.

Every decision today was made by someone who stopped waiting for conditions to improve.

GM stopped waiting for EV demand to return. Gulf governments stopped waiting until they needed the cash. Nasdaq stopped waiting for SpaceX to accept its terms. Insurance markets stopped waiting to reprice Gulf risk.

The one group that didn't choose its position is the 330,000 small businesses still waiting for a refund process that isn't ready. They're not adapting. They're just holding on.

That's the difference this morning. The institutions recalculated. The small businesses are still waiting for someone else to.