Financial Market News | Saturday Review

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed near record highs this week. The gains looked clean from the outside. They were not clean underneath.

AI capital kept moving fast. Anthropic surpassed OpenAI in valuation. Dell Technologies (DELL) posted AI server growth that stunned Wall Street. SpaceX (SPCX) filed its IPO. Three memory giants crossed $1 trillion in the same three-week stretch.

At the same time, the consumer underneath all of it showed real strain. Credit card delinquencies hit a 15-year high. GDP was revised lower. PCE came in hot. The savings rate fell to 2.6 percent.

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This week settled the hardware debate.

Dell (DELL) reported $16.1 billion in AI server revenue. Up 757 percent in a single quarter. The stock surged 39 percent after hours. Full-year AI guidance raised to $60 billion.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) reported data center revenue up 27 percent, with the CEO saying growth accelerates every quarter through fiscal 2027.

Nvidia (NVDA) confirmed it now spends $100 to $150 billion annually in Taiwan. That number was $10 to $15 billion five years ago. A tenfold increase in half a decade.

Three separate companies confirmed the same thing in the same week. The AI infrastructure buildout is not slowing. It is still accelerating.

Dell's numbers are the infrastructure test. They rest on hyperscaler capex continuing. This week confirmed it is. Every AI valuation above Dell rests on the same foundation. Thursday night made that foundation look solid.

Micron (MU) crossed $1 trillion. SK Hynix followed. Samsung had already done it weeks earlier. Three of the world's largest memory producers above $1 trillion at the same time. That has never happened before.

The reason is the same for all three. High-bandwidth memory is sold out through 2026. Every major producer. Customers are signing multi-year contracts because spot availability is gone.

Micron trades at 8.4 times forward earnings. The S&P trades at 22 times. The market has not fully priced what a sold-out memory cycle means across multiple years.

Memory pricing is no longer just a chip story. Meta (META) raised full-year spending by $10 billion citing memory costs. GE HealthCare (GEHC) cut profit guidance for the same reason. Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook warned that memory costs will be significantly higher after June.

Memory crossed from tech input to macro input this week. When three factories control the price of the most important AI component, their pricing decisions reach inflation data, monetary policy, and sovereign trade strategy. That is a different kind of constraint than the market is used to pricing.

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For three years, OpenAI was the default for enterprise AI. That changed this week.

Anthropic closed a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation. That tops OpenAI's $852 billion figure. PitchBook called it the fastest valuation growth in venture capital history.

Annualized revenue hits $50 billion next month. It grew 80-fold in Q1 alone. The first operating profit is expected this quarter.

At the same time, Ramp, which tracks spending at roughly 50,000 businesses, published data showing 34.4 percent of its customers now use Anthropic versus 32.3 percent using OpenAI. That was the first time Anthropic led.

The enterprise AI race now has a visible leaderboard heading into IPO season. Anthropic has the higher valuation and faster revenue growth today. Both companies are heading for the same IPO window. The first price set in that window anchors every number that follows.

SpaceX (SPCX) filed its S-1 this week. Ticker: SPCX. Roadshow starts June 4. Debut targets June 12. Valuation target: $1.5 trillion.

For the first time, Starlink's $11.4 billion in revenue is public. So are xAI's $6.4 billion in losses. Two very different businesses. One ticker. One price.

The same week, Blue Origin exploded on the launchpad during a test fire. SpaceX controls more than 60 percent of all satellites currently in orbit. Blue Origin is the only company that could plausibly challenge that. It just lost another rocket on the pad.

The Pentagon is paying SpaceX five times more per Starlink connection than it used to. A senior national security researcher said the U.S. government is "over a barrel." The roadshow opens with both commercial and government customer bases already locked in.

Cerebras (CBRS) surged 68 percent on its IPO debut the week before. SpaceX is targeting a $1.5 trillion valuation. The Cerebras number is the floor for the conversation SpaceX's prospectus opens. Whoever sets the first price in this window anchors every AI private market valuation that follows.

Jerome Powell says gold isn’t money. The Fed says inflation is under control.

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Last year, they bought more gold than at any time since 1967. China dumped $100B in U.S. debt, then bought gold. Poland, Hungary, Singapore, Turkey… all loading up.

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Two earnings reports showed the same divide from opposite directions.

Snowflake (SNOW) surged 34 percent after hours. Revenue grew 33 percent. The company signed a $6 billion five-year commitment to Amazon Web Services (AMZN). The bear case said AI agents would make data storage unnecessary. Snowflake's counter is the opposite. AI agents consume data faster than humans. More agents means more consumption. Snowflake charges by consumption.

Zscaler (ZS) had its worst single day ever. The stock fell 32 percent. Next-year guidance missed badly. Two sales leaders left mid-quarter.

Zscaler sells software to corporate security teams. AI may eventually bypass that layer entirely. Snowflake sits in the path of every byte those agents touch.

Same AI wave. Two very different outcomes. The companies capturing AI consumption are winning. The companies that AI can route around are not. Wednesday made that separation more visible than any prior session has.

The AI economy ran hard this week. The consumer funding that economy showed cracks.

Credit card delinquencies of 90 days or more hit 13.12 percent in Q1. The highest since the financial crisis. Total balances stand at $1.25 trillion. Average interest rates rose to 21 percent from 14.6 percent in 2022.

GDP was revised down to 1.6 percent for Q1. Consumer spending revised lower. The personal savings rate fell to 2.6 percent, the lowest since June 2022.

PCE came in at 3.8 percent year-over-year. Core hit 3.3 percent. Both above expectations. Dollar Tree (DLTR) surged 18 percent on earnings driven by middle-income shoppers trading down.

The St. Louis Fed publicly challenged new chair Warsh's framework this week. Warsh argues AI productivity will lower inflation without hiking. The St. Louis Fed president called that risky.

Corporate profits are outrunning an economy where consumers are spending from savings. The savings rate at 2.6 percent is not zero. The pace of the decline is what matters now. The consumer being asked to fund the SpaceX IPO roadshow is running out of runway.

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Six things drove markets this week.

Dell confirmed 757 percent AI server growth. Three memory giants hit $1 trillion. Anthropic surpassed OpenAI. SpaceX filed the most consequential IPO in years. The AI software divide became impossible to ignore. And the consumer underneath the rally showed the most stress since the financial crisis.

The market closed near record highs. The conditions underneath those highs are more complicated than the headlines suggest.