Financial Market News | Saturday Review

The S&P 500 closed the week slightly higher. The Nasdaq recovered its three-day losing streak and finished near record highs.

The real story was the tension underneath. The AI era moved from story into capital this week. At the same time, the assumptions holding it up got shakier. 

Nvidia (NVDA) beat and conceded China in the same call. SpaceX filed one of the largest IPOs in market history. Then Starship failed its pre-IPO test the next evening. Anthropic posted its first profit. The Fed moved toward hiking the rates AI needs to stay low.

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Nvidia reported $81.6 billion in revenue last quarter. That is up 85 percent from a year ago. The company also announced an $80 billion buyback. Then CEO Jensen Huang said Nvidia has given up China's AI chip market to Huawei. The company is counting zero China revenue in its current guidance.

On the same call, Huang said AI spending could reach $3 to $4 trillion per year by the end of the decade. Wall Street's best guess is $1 trillion by 2028.

The Takeaway

The buyback puts a floor under the stock. The China loss removes a ceiling Huang had talked about for two years. The gap between his forecast and Wall Street's is the biggest open question heading into next quarter. It does not get resolved in a debate. It gets resolved in earnings reports.

SpaceX filed its S-1 on Wednesday. Ticker: SPCX. Roadshow starts June 4. Debut targets June 12. Valuation target: $1.5 trillion. For the first time, Starlink's $11.4 billion in revenue and xAI's $6.4 billion in losses are public. 

Starship was listed first among the company's risk factors. It failed its pre-IPO launch test Thursday evening. A hydraulic pin did not work.

Anthropic expects $10.9 billion in second-quarter revenue. That is up 130 percent from Q1. Its first projected operating profit is $559 million. OpenAI is expected to file this week for a fall debut.

The Takeaway 

Three companies worth nearly $4 trillion combined are now on the same schedule. SpaceX sets the first price in June. OpenAI sets the second in the fall. Anthropic arrives last with its first profit already in hand. Whoever files first sets the anchor. Everyone else reacts to it. Starship failing its test the same week the S-1 named it the top risk is not a small thing. The roadshow opens in 12 days.

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Three big retail earnings reports landed this week. Each one said the same thing a little louder. 

Home Depot (HD) saw shoppers come in less often and spend less each trip. Comparable transactions fell for the fourth straight quarter. Target (TGT) had its best sales gain in four years. Then the stock fell 6 percent on the call. The CFO explained that tax refund checks had softened the hit from gas prices all quarter. That money is spent. 

Walmart (WMT) confirmed it. The average gas fill-up at its stations fell below 10 gallons for the first time since 2022. The CFO said Q2 will be harder because the refund buffer is gone.

The Takeaway 

Refund checks and delayed fuel costs made Q1 look stronger than it was. That buffer is gone entering Q2. Gas is higher. Inventories are tight heading into peak summer demand. Watch Walmart's Q2 transaction count. That number is the clearest early read on whether Q1's strength was real or borrowed.

Monday opened with a drone hitting the perimeter of the UAE's Barakah Nuclear Power Plant. Two of three drones were shot down. The third caused a fire near a power generator outside the main fence. Radiation stayed normal. But the IAEA activated emergency protocols. 

By Thursday, Iran's Supreme Leader said enriched uranium must stay in Iran. Trump has called uranium removal a condition he will not drop. Those two positions do not fit inside any deal that is currently visible. 

Oil jumped 4 percent and gave it all back the same day. Gas hit $4.56 nationally entering Memorial Day weekend. Inventories have fallen every week of the war.

The Takeaway 

Hitting nuclear infrastructure changes the rules. It triggers safety protocols and shrinks the room for diplomacy. The 4 percent move that reversed the same day shows how uncertain the market still is. GasBuddy has warned that $5 per gallon is possible if Hormuz stays closed through summer. At that price, Walmart's Q2 warning becomes a problem for every spending category, not just retail.

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Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair on Friday. His plan had three parts. Cut rates by arguing AI would lower inflation. Shrink the Fed's balance sheet. Communicate less through forward guidance. All three face real pushback inside the Fed right now.

Minutes from Powell's last meeting showed most officials think inflation will stay high longer than expected. A majority said rate hikes may be needed. Fed Governor Michael Barr called balance sheet cuts "the wrong objective." The minutes also named rising tech and software prices as inflation drivers.

The Takeaway

Warsh argued AI would lower inflation and create room to cut rates. The Fed's own data says AI is currently raising inflation through chip costs, data center spending, and $300 billion in tech bonds flooding the market. His staff said so on the record before he ran a single meeting. His first meeting is June 16. The gap between his plan and the Fed he inherited may close faster than markets expect.

On March 23, Trump posted that he was holding off on Iran strikes. Oil fell hard almost right away. According to Wall Street Journal reporting, more than $800 million in oil futures were traded in the minutes before that post. The CFTC is now looking at whether those trades and others like them showed unusual patterns ahead of Iran-related news. 

Jane Street, Qube Research and Technologies, and the trading arm of TotalEnergies (TTE) have been named in reports. None have been accused of wrongdoing. The White House warned staff the next day not to use inside knowledge to trade.

The Takeaway 

That warning is its own signal. It says the White House thought the risk of a leak was real enough to address the very next morning. The pattern reportedly covers multiple events over multiple months. If the CFTC passes any part of this to the Justice Department, it gains tools like subpoenas and witness deals. That step would make this case much bigger very quickly.

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Six threads drove markets this week. Nvidia beat and gave up China while calling for $4 trillion in AI spending. Three companies worth nearly $4 trillion combined entered the same IPO window. The consumer spent Q1 on a cushion that is now gone. Iran hit nuclear infrastructure and drew a hard line on uranium. Warsh inherited a Fed already moving against his plan. And a big oil trading case quietly opened around a social media post.

The market closed higher. The conditions underneath it got more complicated.