China Delays | Cerebras Higher | Summit Deal

Stocks stayed bid into the close as AI momentum overpowered inflation worries again. 

Cisco ripped higher after earnings and job cuts tied to deeper AI spending, while Nvidia extended gains after reports emerged that the U.S. had approved H200 sales to Chinese firms. No chips have been delivered yet.

The Dow reclaimed 50,000 for the first time in months, even with oil holding near elevated levels and retail sales cooling. 

Trump and Xi also struck a calmer tone on Hormuz access, easing some geopolitical pressure into the close.

AI demand keeps absorbing macro pressure. Inflation and oil matter, but capital is still chasing semis, infrastructure, and anything tied to the next spending wave.

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The U.S. government approved roughly 10 Chinese companies to buy Nvidia's (NVDA) H200 chips. 

Not a single chip has been delivered. Beijing is actively discouraging purchases to protect its own domestic chip industry. New Chinese regulations are also tightening scrutiny of foreign technology in their supply chains.

On top of that, the U.S. wants chip shipments to pass through American territory first so it can collect 25 percent of the revenue. Beijing views that requirement with suspicion.

Jensen Huang is in Beijing right now trying to convert a paper approval into an actual transaction. Both governments have said yes on paper. Neither has made it easy in practice.

What's Stuck

The approval exists. The demand exists. The barrier is political on both sides simultaneously.

The Gap

Implementation language in any joint statement, naming timelines or quantities, would be qualitatively different from a general commitment to keep talking. That specific detail is what Huang flew to Beijing to obtain.

Cerebras (CBRS) set its IPO price at $115 to $125. Then demand came in so strong the range was raised to $150 to $160. Then it priced above that range at $185, raising $5.55 billion at a $56.4 billion valuation. Trading begins today.

That is a 61 percent increase from where the IPO started. The company's 2025 revenue was $510 million. At $56 billion, investors are paying more than 100 times that revenue. They are buying the trajectory, not the current numbers.

Cerebras makes a chip specifically designed for AI inference, the compute that runs every time someone uses an AI tool and gets a response. Its main customers are OpenAI and Amazon Web Services (AMZN). OpenAI co-founders Sam Altman and Greg Brockman are also significant Cerebras shareholders. Altman this week also disclosed under oath a $3 million personal stake in the same company.

The customer concentration is the primary risk in the filing. OpenAI is expected to represent a large share of revenue for years.

The Benchmark

Every AI IPO filing after today gets compared to Cerebras's first-day close. A close above $185 means institutional demand for AI infrastructure is unconstrained. A close below means the market just found its ceiling.

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A Treasury Secretary previewing AI advances from a geopolitical summit is a first.

Trump and Xi have been meeting in Beijing, and the first real deliverable has arrived. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a bilateral U.S.-China AI safety protocol focused on preventing dangerous AI capabilities from reaching non-state actors like terrorist groups or criminal organizations.

This is more significant than the framing suggests. For the first time, the two largest AI powers in the world have agreed to coordinate on how the most powerful AI models get managed. The White House has been drafting domestic executive orders on exactly this issue for weeks. A bilateral agreement adds international weight to whatever comes domestically.

Bessent also said he expects a major capability jump from upcoming releases of Google's (GOOGL) Gemini and OpenAI's models. 

On Nvidia chip sales, he said there has been "a lot of back and forth" and deferred to Commerce. On Taiwan, he said Trump would say more in the coming days.

The Text

If the summit produces a published joint AI document before it closes, it becomes the first bilateral AI governance agreement between the U.S. and China. That is a meaningful milestone regardless of what is in it.

Five separate inflation data points landed this week. Every single one came in above expectations. The final one arrived yesterday, and it confirmed the pattern.

April import prices rose 1.9 percent in a single month, the largest increase since March 2022. Export prices rose 3.3 percent. Retail sales rose 0.5 percent but gas stations accounted for almost all of it. Strip out gas stations and real spending was essentially flat.

The detail that matters most is import prices excluding energy. That rose 0.7 percent monthly. It cannot be blamed on the war or the Hormuz closure. It reflects tariffs and supply chain costs that do not go away when oil normalizes.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said inflation is the "most pressing risk" to the economy and estimated PCE may have approached 4 percent in April.

The Full Week

CPI 3.8 percent. PPI 6 percent. Import prices up 1.9 percent. Retail sales flat in real terms. Every number pointed in the same direction. Warsh inherits all of it before his first meeting in June.

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Private credit stress this week started with defaults. That was chapter one. Chapter two arrived yesterday and it is a different problem. 

The same week Oaktree, BlackRock, Apollo, and KKR disclosed accelerating defaults, new deal volume hit its lowest level in a year. New deal volume in direct lending, where private credit funds make loans directly to businesses, hit a one-year low. Buyout activity fell to its lowest deal count since mid-2023. Uncertainty about rates and the economy has kept private equity firms from doing new deals, which means private credit funds have fewer new loans to make.

The two problems compound each other. Existing loans are souring while new ones are not arriving to replace them. Retail investors who entered these funds expecting 10 to 12 percent annual returns are now seeing 9 percent and pulling money out.

What's Compounding

The default wave and the deal drought are now running simultaneously. That combination describes a private credit cycle entering its contraction phase.

The Sequence

Defaults hit first. Then new deals dry up. Then redemptions accelerate. Private credit is moving through all three stages at once right now.

Every inflation number beat expectations. Cerebras set the floor for every AI IPO that follows. Beijing produced one real deliverable on AI safety and left everything else for the coming days.

The outcomes are clearer than the week started. The implications are not settled yet.