Three AI companies worth nearly $4 trillion are racing to the same public market window, and Berkshire just wrote the first major check into the infrastructure they all depend on.
MARKET PULSE
Yields and Oil Both Eased Overnight, Giving Growth Room to Breathe.
Markets open with mixed signals. Stock futures are slightly lower this morning. But the AI trade refuses to cool down.
Anthropic is heading toward the public markets. Alphabet (GOOGL) is reportedly seeking fresh capital. And HPE (HPE) just highlighted strong AI demand.
Meanwhile, oil is backing off recent highs. Trump says Israel and Hezbollah agreed to pause fighting. That helped calm inflation fears for now.
Investor Signal
Treasury yields eased overnight. Oil prices eased with them.
That combination usually helps growth stocks. And AI remains the market's favorite destination.
Still, geopolitical risk has not disappeared. Every ceasefire headline comes with an asterisk lately. Markets want peace, but they are waiting for proof.
PREMIER FEATURE
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IPO WATCH
All Three AI Giants Are Now Racing to the Same Market.
Anthropic filed confidentially for its IPO. SpaceX opens its roadshow Wednesday. OpenAI files imminently. Three companies collectively valued near $4 trillion, same window, same institutional capital pool. That has never happened before.
The sequencing is everything. SpaceX sets the first valuation anchor in June. OpenAI files next, forced to justify $852 billion against Anthropic's higher $965 billion. Anthropic files last, with both predecessors' trading data already in hand. Last place in this race is actually the best seat.
Banks told both Anthropic and OpenAI that whoever files first captures the most available institutional capital. Altman told CNBC there is no race. The calendar disagrees.
What the Race Means
90-times-revenue IPOs historically underperform by 58 points over three years
Anthropic reached $965 billion faster than any company in VC history
Combined raise could add $4 trillion to U.S. listed market value
OpenAI must justify a lower private valuation than its main rival
The AI demand story is real. Whether public market multiples can hold that story is the actual question.
The Anchor
The first major sovereign wealth fund to commit to any offering names which valuation the institutional world will actually endorse. That name, when it surfaces, sets the floor for all three.
MARKETS WATCH
Alphabet Raised $80 Billion. Berkshire Wrote the First Check.
Alphabet (GOOGL) announced $80 billion in new equity to fund data center expansion. Berkshire Hathaway anchored with $10 billion. For context, Berkshire avoided major tech bets for decades under Warren Buffett. New CEO Greg Abel just changed that in one transaction.
The reason is Google Cloud's backlog, which ballooned to $460 billion from $240 billion in a single quarter. That is contracted future revenue requiring infrastructure to fulfill. Alphabet cannot self-fund what its customers have already committed to buying.
Alphabet's stock fell more than 1 percent after hours on dilution concerns. How the $30 billion underwritten portion prices tells you whether institutions absorb that dilution or pass the cost to existing shareholders.
The Signal
Berkshire's entry into AI infrastructure is not a trade. It is a decade-long bet from the world's most patient capital. When that capital moves, it tends to stay moved.
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The first profits will go to those who move early.
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HARDWARE WATCH
HPE Beat by 40 Percent. It Is Two Years Ahead of Its Own Plan.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) revenue rose 40 percent. Earnings beat estimates by 49 percent. Server bookings are up triple digits. The company is now running two years ahead of its own long-term financial plan.
Companies build plans around their best demand forecast. Running two years ahead means actual demand arrived far faster than even an optimistic projection assumed. That gap is the real story.
HPE's server backlog is the largest in company history. The New York Stock Exchange is among the first confirmed customers for its newest AI server.
What the Numbers Confirm
Server revenue beat estimates by $790 million on a single line item
Nvidia's (NVDA) new Vera CPUs now powering HPE's newest server lineup
Record backlog means demand is ordered and waiting on supply
Full-year EPS guidance raised by a full dollar in one quarter
For every investor debating Nvidia's $4 trillion capex projection, HPE's backlog is the most concrete evidence available. Those purchase orders already exist.
The Constraint
If Q3 guidance describes memory shortages limiting fulfillment, demand is running ahead of supply chain capacity. That is exactly what Nvidia described. Two companies, same bottleneck, same conclusion.
ENERGY WATCH
Nvidia Moved a Battery Stock 44 Percent. It Is Not a Chip Company Anymore.
Fluence Energy (FLNC) surged 44 percent Monday. Nvidia (NVDA) did not release a new battery. It published a data center reference design that included Fluence's storage systems as a required component.
A reference design is not a suggestion. It is a blueprint every operator building on Nvidia's platform now follows. Nvidia just made a battery company a de facto infrastructure standard without selling a single battery itself.
This connects to the grid story running all week. PJM acceleration, NextEra's (NEE) $116 billion Dominion (D) acquisition, $2,000 per megawatt-hour emergency pricing. The constraint was always power, not chips. Nvidia just named the company solving it as part of its own ecosystem.
What Shifts
Fluence CEO called the product a compute accelerator for the grid
Siemens and nVent Electric also included in the same reference design
Nvidia itself surged over 6 percent on the same Computex announcement
Every data center operator on Nvidia now has an implied storage partner
The Expansion
Nvidia moved from chips to servers to energy storage in one announcement. Each expansion makes adjacent companies worth more. That logic does not stop at batteries.
PARTNER SPOTLIGHT
The SpaceX IPO makes me FURIOUS
Elon has reportedly filed to take SpaceX Public... in an IPO that's expected to hit a $1.75 trillion valuation.
The biggest in Wall Street history...
And you know who's going to make all the money? The banks brokering the deal. The hedge fund managers. The billionaire insiders. The same "already rich" 1%'ers.
After the IPO, everyone else will be left fighting over scraps.
That's why I'm leveling the playing field.
SENTIMENT WATCH
40 Percent of AI Investments Underdelivered. 90 Percent Are Spending More Anyway.
A Bain survey of 951 executives found 40 percent recorded AI savings below 10 percent. Despite that, 90 percent of those whose investments missed plan to increase budgets next year. The authors called it a circular bet with a structural leak.
The psychology makes sense. Missing AI is perceived as more dangerous than wasting money on it. So spending continues regardless of returns. That is durable until the returns gap becomes impossible to explain to a board.
Wall Street has noticed. Ninety percent of AI questions on earnings calls are now investigative, probing ROI rather than celebrating product roadmaps. That shift from enthusiasm to scrutiny arrived fast.
The Risk Underneath
Cboe put-to-call ratio hit 0.452, lowest since March 2022
That level preceded sustained losses in prior speculative cycles
Amazon shut down an internal AI leaderboard after employees gamed it
Uber burned its full 2026 AI budget by April, three quarters early
The put-to-call ratio at a four-year low means almost no one is hedged. The largest IPO in history opens Wednesday into that exact setup.
The Pattern
Competitive fear is driving AI spending more than demonstrated returns. That dynamic is durable right up until it is not. The question is whether returns arrive before the scrutiny compounds.
CLOSING LENS
Tuesday opened with three AI giants racing to the same finish line.
Berkshire wrote its first major AI check. HPE confirmed server demand is running two years ahead of plan. Nvidia expanded into battery storage with one product announcement. And 90 percent of executives whose AI bets missed are spending more next year regardless.
The infrastructure is real. The returns are still making their way there.
