Rivals made a deal. Cybersecurity demand proved AI creates its own threat market. Credit stress got its loudest public warning. And the Fed's supply chain data contradicts its incoming chair.

MARKET PULSE

The Rally Keeps Finding Fuel

Futures pushed a bit higher after another record run for the S&P and Nasdaq. But the bigger story was what stayed calm overnight.

Oil kept drifting lower as traders held onto hopes that the U.S. and Iran are moving closer to a deal, easing pressure across markets. 

Strong earnings kept adding fuel, with tech and AI names still leading the charge while investors continue rewarding growth over caution. 

Investor Signal

Right now, lower oil matters more than geopolitical noise. As long as crude stays calm and earnings keep landing, buyers will likely stay aggressive in tech and growth names. 

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AI WATCH

Anthropic and SpaceX Made a Deal. Nobody Saw It Coming.

Anthropic and SpaceX spent months publicly attacking each other. Yesterday, they announced a deal. Business logic beat the rivalry.

Anthropic will use all of SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center in Memphis. That is over 300 megawatts of computing power. Hours later, Musk posted that he met Anthropic's team and was genuinely impressed. He also announced xAI would be rebranded as SpaceXAI.

What's Inside

  • Colossus 1 is among the largest AI data centers in the U.S.

  • Anthropic expressed interest in space-based compute capacity

  • SpaceX's IPO prospectus named orbital data centers as a core market

  • The deal arrived weeks before SpaceX's IPO roadshow begins

The space compute interest is the bigger signal. SpaceX built its entire IPO case around AI being its largest future market. Anthropic committing to orbital compute would be the first named customer for that vision.

A named Anthropic contract for orbital compute would be the most direct validation of SpaceX's AI infrastructure thesis in the prospectus.

The Reversal

Two rivals closed a deal because the infrastructure shortage left them no choice. When enemies start transacting, the scarcity driving it is real.

CYBER WATCH

Fortinet Grew 31 Percent. AI Created Its Own Security Demand.

The fear in software investing this year was simple. Would AI make security tools obsolete? Fortinet (FTNT) answered that today.

Billings grew 31 percent. Revenue rose 20 percent. The company said AI is making attacks more complex and more frequent. Shares jumped 16 percent. Zscaler (ZS) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) both rose in sympathy.

The logic is direct. AI makes it easier to launch attacks. So companies spend more defending against them. That means more security spending, not less.

Fortinet just proved the spending is real and accelerating.

The Resolution

If Palo Alto and Zscaler confirm similar demand when they report, the AI-kills-security fear is officially dead. The whole sector re-rates from that point forward.

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CREDIT WATCH

Gundlach Said People Will Lose Money in Private Credit.

Jeffrey Gundlach manages nearly $100 billion at DoubleLine. He does not warn casually. At Milken, he said private credit investors "are going to lose money here."

He compared the market to dot-com and pre-crisis mortgages. Both hid risk behind complexity until it was too late. He called the term "semi-liquid" for these funds misleading. The funds are liquid when you do not need them. They are illiquid exactly when you do.

This landed the same week HSBC disclosed a $400 million private credit loss. Oaktree (OCSL) marked down software loans and cut its dividend. Nearly 10 percent of private credit borrowers are showing stress.

What's Building

  • Gundlach spoke directly to the largest managers in the room

  • Software is 19 percent of all stressed borrowers

  • Retail investors entered these funds chasing high yields

  • Gating rules were not clearly explained to most investors

The pattern Gundlach named has a sequence. Complexity hides the risk first. Retail money enters late. Assets deteriorate before prices move. That sequence is already running.

The Quiet

No major private credit manager has responded publicly. In markets, silence from the accused is rarely a good sign.

FED WATCH

Two Fed Officials Said Inflation Is Spreading Beyond Oil.

The assumption was simple. Strait reopens, inflation falls. Two Fed officials spoke and pushed back on that directly.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said companies are burning through chemical and industrial input stocks. When those run out, production problems persist even after oil normalizes. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said rate hikes are still a real possibility. Neither currently votes on the committee. Both are describing the environment Warsh walks into.

The global supply chain pressure index hit its highest level since July 2022 the same day.

Oil shocks are reversible. Supply chain disruption is not. That is the difference both officials are naming. Warsh takes over May 15 wanting to cut rates. His own colleagues are describing the opposite scenario publicly.

The Gap

Warsh's cut agenda and the Fed's supply chain data point in opposite directions. His first meeting is where that gap has to resolve.

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FUEL WATCH

Jet Fuel Is Moving From Expensive to Scarce.

There is a real difference between expensive fuel and scarce fuel. Expensive means higher costs. Scarce means airports cannot operate. The story has now moved closer to scarce.

Global jet fuel exports fell 30 percent in April. Weekly tanker loadings fell 50 percent versus last year. ConocoPhillips (COP) warned import-dependent countries could face critical shortages by June or July. European airports formally warned the EU of a systemic shortage.

The pre-war buffer is gone. Tankers that left the Gulf before hostilities began have now arrived and been used up.

What's Already Moving

  • Jet fuel in Europe doubled to $187 per barrel

  • U.S. exports to Europe surged 400 percent but fall short

  • Asian refineries lost 90 percent of their main crude source

  • California faces shortages as its South Korean supplier runs dry

Financial hedges protect against price spikes. They do not help when the fuel does not exist at any price.

The Line

When any major airport announces operational limits beyond route cuts, the story has crossed from costly to critical. That announcement has not come yet. The timeline says it is close.

CLOSING LENS

The morning compressed a season of tension into one day.

Rivals made deals. Private credit got its loudest warning of the year. The Fed's own data contradicted its incoming chair. Jet fuel moved from expensive to potentially scarce on a timeline measured in weeks.

The stress stopped building. It started arriving.

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